European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change

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2018
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Thuiller, Wilfried
Dullinger, Stefan
Block, Svenja
Bossdorf, Oliver
Carboni, Marta
Conti, Luisa
Dullinger, Iwona
Essl, Franz
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Journal of Applied Ecology. 2018, 55(5), pp. 2386-2395. ISSN 0021-8901. eISSN 1365-2664. Available under: doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13197
Zusammenfassung
  1. Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions.
    2. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe.
    3. We found that non-European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species.
    4. Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.
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Fachgebiet (DDC)
570 Biowissenschaften, Biologie
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biological invasions, climatic suitability, garden plants, invasion modelling, invasive plants, naturalisation success, propagule pressure, risk assessment
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ISO 690HAEUSER, Emily Sutton, Wayne DAWSON, Wilfried THUILLER, Stefan DULLINGER, Svenja BLOCK, Oliver BOSSDORF, Marta CARBONI, Luisa CONTI, Iwona DULLINGER, Franz ESSL, Mark VAN KLEUNEN, 2018. European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change. In: Journal of Applied Ecology. 2018, 55(5), pp. 2386-2395. ISSN 0021-8901. eISSN 1365-2664. Available under: doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13197
BibTex
@article{Haeuser2018-09Europ-42792,
  year={2018},
  doi={10.1111/1365-2664.13197},
  title={European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change},
  number={5},
  volume={55},
  issn={0021-8901},
  journal={Journal of Applied Ecology},
  pages={2386--2395},
  author={Haeuser, Emily Sutton and Dawson, Wayne and Thuiller, Wilfried and Dullinger, Stefan and Block, Svenja and Bossdorf, Oliver and Carboni, Marta and Conti, Luisa and Dullinger, Iwona and Essl, Franz and van Kleunen, Mark}
}
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