Discovering Stochastic Dynamical Equations from Ecological Time Series Data

Abstract

Theoretical studies have shown that stochasticity can affect the dynamics of ecosystems in counterintuitive ways. However, without knowing the equations governing the dynamics of populations or ecosystems, it is difficult to ascertain the role of stochasticity in real datasets. Therefore, the inverse problem of inferring the governing stochastic equations from datasets is important. Here, we present an equation discovery methodology that takes time series data of state variables as input and outputs a stochastic differential equation. We achieve this by combining traditional approaches from stochastic calculus with the equation discovery techniques. We demonstrate the generality of the method via several applications. First, we deliberately choose various stochastic models with fundamentally different governing equations, yet they produce nearly identical steady-state distributions. We show that we can recover the correct underlying equations, and thus infer the structure of their stability, accurately from the analysis of time series data alone. We demonstrate our method on two real-world datasets—fish schooling and single-cell migration—that have vastly different spatiotemporal scales and dynamics. We illustrate various limitations and potential pitfalls of the method and how to overcome them via diagnostic measures. Finally, we provide our open-source code via a package named PyDaDDy (Python Library for Data-Driven Dynamics).