An Accuracy Argument in Favor of Ranking Theory

Lade...
Vorschaubild
Datum
2020
Herausgeber:innen
Kontakt
ISSN der Zeitschrift
eISSN
item.preview.dc.identifier.isbn
Bibliografische Daten
Verlag
Schriftenreihe
URI (zitierfähiger Link)
DOI (zitierfähiger Link)
ArXiv-ID
Internationale Patentnummer
EU-Projektnummer
Projekt
Open Access-Veröffentlichung
Sammlungen
Gesperrt bis
Titel in einer weiteren Sprache
Forschungsvorhaben
Organisationseinheiten
Zeitschriftenheft
Publikationstyp
Zeitschriftenartikel
Publikationsstatus
Published
Erschienen in
Journal of Philosophical Logic ; 49 (2020), 2. - S. 283-313. - Springer Science+Business Media. - ISSN 0022-3611. - eISSN 1573-0433
Zusammenfassung
Fitelson and McCarthy (2014) have proposed an accuracy measure for confidence orders which favors probability measures and Dempster-Shafer belief functions as accounts of degrees of belief and excludes ranking functions. Their accuracy measure only penalizes mistakes in confidence comparisons. We propose an alternative accuracy measure that also rewards correct confidence comparisons. Thus we conform to both of William James’ maxims: “Believe truth! Shun error!” We combine the two maxims, penalties and rewards, into one criterion that we call prioritized accuracy optimization (PAO). That is, PAO punishes wrong comparisons (preferring the false to the true) and rewards right comparisons (preferring the true to the false). And it requires to prioritize being right und avoiding to be wrong in a specific way. Thus PAO is both, a scoring rule and a decision rule. It turns out that precisely confidence orders representable by two-sided ranking functions satisfy PAO. The point is not to argue that PAO is the better accuracy goal. The point is only that ranking theory can also be supported by accuracy considerations. Thus, those considerations by themselves cannot decide about rational formats for degrees of belief, but are part and parcel of an overall normative assessment of those formats.
Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Fachgebiet (DDC)
100 Philosophie
Schlagwörter
Comparative belief, Accuracy, Accuracy-first epistemology, Degrees of belief, Probability theory, Ranking theory, Representation theorems
Konferenz
Rezension
undefined / . - undefined, undefined. - (undefined; undefined)
Zitieren
ISO 690RAIDL, Eric, Wolfgang SPOHN, 2020. An Accuracy Argument in Favor of Ranking Theory. In: Journal of Philosophical Logic. Springer Science+Business Media. 49(2), pp. 283-313. ISSN 0022-3611. eISSN 1573-0433. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s10992-019-09518-8
BibTex
@article{Raidl2020-04Accur-46184,
  year={2020},
  doi={10.1007/s10992-019-09518-8},
  title={An Accuracy Argument in Favor of Ranking Theory},
  number={2},
  volume={49},
  issn={0022-3611},
  journal={Journal of Philosophical Logic},
  pages={283--313},
  author={Raidl, Eric and Spohn, Wolfgang}
}
RDF
<rdf:RDF
    xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"
    xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
    xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
    xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/"
    xmlns:dspace="http://digital-repositories.org/ontologies/dspace/0.1.0#"
    xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/"
    xmlns:void="http://rdfs.org/ns/void#"
    xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > 
  <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/46184">
    <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/40"/>
    <dcterms:title>An Accuracy Argument in Favor of Ranking Theory</dcterms:title>
    <bibo:uri rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/46184"/>
    <dc:creator>Raidl, Eric</dc:creator>
    <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2019-07-01T12:00:03Z</dc:date>
    <dcterms:rights rdf:resource="https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/"/>
    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Fitelson and McCarthy (2014) have proposed an accuracy measure for confidence orders which favors probability measures and Dempster-Shafer belief functions as accounts of degrees of belief and excludes ranking functions. Their accuracy measure only penalizes mistakes in confidence comparisons. We propose an alternative accuracy measure that also rewards correct confidence comparisons. Thus we conform to both of William James’ maxims: “Believe truth! Shun error!” We combine the two maxims, penalties and rewards, into one criterion that we call prioritized accuracy optimization (PAO). That is, PAO punishes wrong comparisons (preferring the false to the true) and rewards right comparisons (preferring the true to the false). And it requires to prioritize being right und avoiding to be wrong in a specific way. Thus PAO is both, a scoring rule and a decision rule. It turns out that precisely confidence orders representable by two-sided ranking functions satisfy PAO. The point is not to argue that PAO is the better accuracy goal. The point is only that ranking theory can also be supported by accuracy considerations. Thus, those considerations by themselves cannot decide about rational formats for degrees of belief, but are part and parcel of an overall normative assessment of those formats.</dcterms:abstract>
    <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2019-07-01T12:00:03Z</dcterms:available>
    <dc:rights>terms-of-use</dc:rights>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/40"/>
    <dcterms:issued>2020-04</dcterms:issued>
    <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/46184/1/Raidl_2-fssl5ey2a1ec1.PDF"/>
    <dc:contributor>Spohn, Wolfgang</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Spohn, Wolfgang</dc:creator>
    <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/"/>
    <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
    <dc:contributor>Raidl, Eric</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/46184/1/Raidl_2-fssl5ey2a1ec1.PDF"/>
  </rdf:Description>
</rdf:RDF>
Interner Vermerk
xmlui.Submission.submit.DescribeStep.inputForms.label.kops_note_fromSubmitter
Kontakt
URL der Originalveröffentl.
Prüfdatum der URL
Prüfungsdatum der Dissertation
Finanzierungsart
Kommentar zur Publikation
Allianzlizenz
Corresponding Authors der Uni Konstanz vorhanden
Internationale Co-Autor:innen
Universitätsbibliographie
Ja
Begutachtet
Ja