Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Lade...
Vorschaubild
Dateien
Massey_2-eslvuwftrymw6.PDF
Massey_2-eslvuwftrymw6.PDFGröße: 3.45 MBDownloads: 48
Datum
2022
Herausgeber:innen
Kontakt
ISSN der Zeitschrift
Electronic ISSN
ISBN
Bibliografische Daten
Verlag
Schriftenreihe
Auflagebezeichnung
ArXiv-ID
Internationale Patentnummer
Link zur Lizenz
Angaben zur Forschungsförderung
Projekt
Open Access-Veröffentlichung
Open Access Hybrid
Core Facility der Universität Konstanz
Gesperrt bis
Titel in einer weiteren Sprache
Forschungsvorhaben
Organisationseinheiten
Zeitschriftenheft
Publikationstyp
Zeitschriftenartikel
Publikationsstatus
Published
Erschienen in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). National Academy of Sciences. 2022, 119(44), e2203150119. ISSN 0027-8424. eISSN 1091-6490. Available under: doi: 10.1073/pnas.2203150119
Zusammenfassung

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Fachgebiet (DDC)
000 Allgemeines, Wissenschaft
Schlagwörter
metascience, many analysts, researcher degrees of freedom, analytical flexibility, immigration and policy preferences
Konferenz
Rezension
undefined / . - undefined, undefined
Zitieren
ISO 690BREZNAU, Nate, Eike Mark RINKE, Alexander WUTTKE, Sharon BAUTE, Sebastian HELLMEIER, Christian HUNKLER, Philipp M. LERSCH, Philipp LUTSCHER, Matthias MADER, Julian SEURING, Nadja WEHL, 2022. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). National Academy of Sciences. 2022, 119(44), e2203150119. ISSN 0027-8424. eISSN 1091-6490. Available under: doi: 10.1073/pnas.2203150119
BibTex
@article{Breznau2022-11Obser-59671,
  year={2022},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.2203150119},
  title={Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty},
  number={44},
  volume={119},
  issn={0027-8424},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)},
  author={Breznau, Nate and Rinke, Eike Mark and Wuttke, Alexander and Baute, Sharon and Hellmeier, Sebastian and Hunkler, Christian and Lersch, Philipp M. and Lutscher, Philipp and Mader, Matthias and Seuring, Julian and Wehl, Nadja},
  note={Article Number: e2203150119}
}
RDF
<rdf:RDF
    xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"
    xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
    xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
    xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/"
    xmlns:dspace="http://digital-repositories.org/ontologies/dspace/0.1.0#"
    xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/"
    xmlns:void="http://rdfs.org/ns/void#"
    xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > 
  <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/59671">
    <bibo:uri rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/59671"/>
    <dc:contributor>Hunkler, Christian</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Wehl, Nadja</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Breznau, Nate</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Mader, Matthias</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Wuttke, Alexander</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Hellmeier, Sebastian</dc:creator>
    <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/"/>
    <dc:contributor>Hellmeier, Sebastian</dc:contributor>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/43613"/>
    <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/59671/1/Massey_2-eslvuwftrymw6.PDF"/>
    <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2023-01-11T11:35:40Z</dc:date>
    <dc:creator>Rinke, Eike Mark</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Mader, Matthias</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/59671/1/Massey_2-eslvuwftrymw6.PDF"/>
    <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
    <dc:creator>Lersch, Philipp M.</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Breznau, Nate</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:title>Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty</dcterms:title>
    <dc:contributor>Rinke, Eike Mark</dc:contributor>
    <dc:rights>Attribution 4.0 International</dc:rights>
    <dc:creator>Lutscher, Philipp</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Wuttke, Alexander</dc:contributor>
    <dc:contributor>Lutscher, Philipp</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/42"/>
    <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2023-01-11T11:35:40Z</dcterms:available>
    <dc:creator>Baute, Sharon</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Hunkler, Christian</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Seuring, Julian</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/43613"/>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/42"/>
    <dc:contributor>Lersch, Philipp M.</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:rights rdf:resource="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"/>
    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.</dcterms:abstract>
    <dc:creator>Seuring, Julian</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Wehl, Nadja</dc:contributor>
    <dc:contributor>Baute, Sharon</dc:contributor>
    <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/>
    <dcterms:issued>2022-11</dcterms:issued>
  </rdf:Description>
</rdf:RDF>
Interner Vermerk
xmlui.Submission.submit.DescribeStep.inputForms.label.kops_note_fromSubmitter
Kontakt
URL der Originalveröffentl.
Prüfdatum der URL
Prüfungsdatum der Dissertation
Finanzierungsart
Kommentar zur Publikation
Allianzlizenz
Corresponding Authors der Uni Konstanz vorhanden
Internationale Co-Autor:innen
Universitätsbibliographie
Ja
Begutachtet
Ja
Diese Publikation teilen