Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy

Strubbe, Diederik; Jiménez, Laura; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Davis, Amy; Lens, Luc; Rahbek, Carsten

Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy

Files

Strubbe_2-q8ifvxeoiues1.pdf(2.82 MB)

Date

2023

Authors

Strubbe, Diederik

Jiménez, Laura

Barbosa, A. Márcia

Davis, Amy

Lens, Luc

Rahbek, Carsten

Publication type

Journal article

Publication status

Published

Published in

Nature Communications ; 14 (2023), 1. - 2520. - Springer. - eISSN 2041-1723

Abstract

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and inflict massive economic costs. Effective management of bio-invasions depends on reliable predictions of areas at risk of invasion, as they allow early invader detection and rapid responses. Yet, considerable uncertainty remains as to how to predict best potential invasive distribution ranges. Using a set of mainly (sub)tropical birds introduced to Europe, we show that the true extent of the geographical area at risk of invasion can accurately be determined by using ecophysiological mechanistic models that quantify species’ fundamental thermal niches. Potential invasive ranges are primarily constrained by functional traits related to body allometry and body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation. Given their capacity to identify tolerable climates outside of contemporary realized species niches, mechanistic predictions are well suited for informing effective policy and management aimed at preventing the escalating impacts of invasive species.

Subject (DDC)

570 Biosciences, Biology

Cite This

ISO 690

STRUBBE, Diederik, Laura JIMÉNEZ, A. Márcia BARBOSA, Amy DAVIS, Luc LENS, Carsten RAHBEK, 2023. Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy. In: Nature Communications. Springer. 14(1), 2520. eISSN 2041-1723. Available under: doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-38329-4

BibTex

@article{Strubbe2023-05-02Mecha-66868,
  year={2023},
  doi={10.1038/s41467-023-38329-4},
  title={Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy},
  number={1},
  volume={14},
  journal={Nature Communications},
  author={Strubbe, Diederik and Jiménez, Laura and Barbosa, A. Márcia and Davis, Amy and Lens, Luc and Rahbek, Carsten},
  note={Article Number: 2520}
}

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Refereed

Yes