Disappointed Expectations : Downward Mobility and Electoral Change

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2022
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van Staalduinen, Briitta
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American Political Science Review. Cambridge University Press. 2022, 116(4), pp. 1340-1356. ISSN 0003-0554. eISSN 1537-5943. Available under: doi: 10.1017/S0003055422000077
Zusammenfassung

Postindustrial occupational change has ended an era of unprecedented upward mobility. We examine the political implications of this immense structural shift by introducing the concept of status discordance, which we operationalize as the difference between status expectations formed during childhood and outcomes realized in adulthood. We leverage German household panel data and predictive modeling to provide empirical estimates of status expectations based on childhood circumstances and parental background. The analysis reveals that political dissatisfaction is widespread among voters who fall short of intergenerational status expectations. We show that such dissatisfaction is associated with higher abstention rates, less mainstream party support, and more radical voting. Moreover, we explore variation in status discordance by gender, education, and occupation, which influence the choice between radical left and right parties. Our findings highlight how expectations about opportunities underlie generational voting patterns and shed light on the ongoing breakdown of the postwar political consensus.

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ISO 690KURER, Thomas, Briitta VAN STAALDUINEN, 2022. Disappointed Expectations : Downward Mobility and Electoral Change. In: American Political Science Review. Cambridge University Press. 2022, 116(4), pp. 1340-1356. ISSN 0003-0554. eISSN 1537-5943. Available under: doi: 10.1017/S0003055422000077
BibTex
@article{Kurer2022Disap-56716,
  year={2022},
  doi={10.1017/S0003055422000077},
  title={Disappointed Expectations : Downward Mobility and Electoral Change},
  number={4},
  volume={116},
  issn={0003-0554},
  journal={American Political Science Review},
  pages={1340--1356},
  author={Kurer, Thomas and van Staalduinen, Briitta}
}
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