Reflective choice : a novel decision rule for changing decision situations

Abstract

The paper first argues that we need to generalize the notion of a strategy. In its most general sense, a strategy makes itself dependent not on external events, but on the agent’s changed decision situations. Therefore, the paper considers epistemic as well as utility or preference change, and it argues that ordinary optimizing of strategies as well as the decision rule of sophisticated choice cannot provide a rational response to considering such changes in an adequate general way. Rather, we must assume that the agent’s has a subjective second-order assessment of the greater or lesser favorability of the envisaged changes. The decision-theoretic role of this favorability assessment is precisely explicated in the decision rule of so-called reflective choice. Finally, the wide range of applicability and the great unificatory power of this novel decision rule will be illustrated.