Modelling Strategic Interactions in a Global Context

Abstract

This chapter illustrates strategic statistical estimation as developed in Signorino by analysing the interaction between a government and a domestic challenger that might lead to repression and/or rebellion. It discusses the theoretical model of the strategic interaction between the government and the domestic challenger and introduces questions that can be answered by empirically estimating it. The chapter derives a strategic estimator in the context of the theoretical model introduced here and discusses how the necessary stochastic uncertainty can be justified using international factors. Strategic estimation is a statistical technique that takes the strategic nature of an underlying theoretical model explicitly into account. It discusses additional complications that could arise if international influences introduce uncertainty in strategic interactions. The chapter also discusses how uncertainty can be derived from international sources. This derivation provides additional substantive justifications that can help researchers determine what type of uncertainty structure to use.