On the duration of civil war

Abstract

This chapter explores empirically the duration of civil war. The subject is of interest both for policy and as a means of distinguishing between alternative theories of civil conflict. From the policy perspective, a distinctive feature of civil war is its persistence. The average civil war lasts over six times longer than the average international war.1 Given the long duration of civil wars, an important policy question is how civil wars can be shortened. Fortunately, it is possible to access a comprehensive dataset of international policy interventions in civil wars, thus making it possible to investigate the efficacy of these interventions in shortening conflict. Furthermore, this article investigates the effect of changes in the price of exported primary commodities. This approximates the curtailment of rebel incomes from the plunder of natural resources. Several initiatives now have this objective, most notably the newly launched Kimberley Process of diamond certification. From the perspective of theory, this analysis casts some light on whether rebel groups regard civil war as a cost of achieving post-conflict change, or as itself constituting an improvement upon the pre-conflict state.