The winners and losers of war : stock market effects of armed conflict, 1990-2000
| dc.contributor.author | Schneider, Gerald | |
| dc.contributor.author | Tröger, Vera | deu |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-01-12T13:55:50Z | deu |
| dc.date.available | 2012-01-12T13:55:50Z | deu |
| dc.date.issued | 2004 | deu |
| dc.description.abstract | War opponents frequently assert that the economic interests of the defence industry and other sectors drive the warring parties into the use of force. This paper evaluates this claim indirectly and identifies with a refined version of “commercial liberalism” the sectors that loose or gain during an intensification of the hostilities. Our time series analysis examines how the ups and downs in three conflicts (Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Ex-Yugoslavia) affected subindices of three major Western stock market indices (CAC, Dow Jones, FTSE) throughout the 1990s. GARCH (1, 1) models show in line with the distributional theory of war that the defence sector occasionally profits from an intensification of a conflict, while other sectors (aviation, hotels, leisure) lose under an escalation of the hostilities. Our model also accounts for the negative reactions of the “military-industrial complex” to cooperative events that the analysis uncovers for some conflicts. | eng |
| dc.description.version | published | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/17090 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | deu |
| dc.legacy.dateIssued | 2012-01-12 | deu |
| dc.publisher | Madrid : Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, Inst. Juan March de Estudio e Investigaciones | deu |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Working paper / Center for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences;205 | deu |
| dc.rights | terms-of-use | deu |
| dc.rights.uri | https://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/ | deu |
| dc.subject | Economy and war | deu |
| dc.subject | Distributive effects of conflict | deu |
| dc.subject | Commercial liberalism | deu |
| dc.subject | War rally | deu |
| dc.subject | Stock market | deu |
| dc.subject | ARCH/GARCH Models | deu |
| dc.subject | Event data | deu |
| dc.subject.ddc | 320 | deu |
| dc.title | The winners and losers of war : stock market effects of armed conflict, 1990-2000 | eng |
| dc.type | WORKINGPAPER | deu |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| kops.citation.bibtex | @techreport{Schneider2004winne-17090,
year={2004},
publisher={Madrid : Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, Inst. Juan March de Estudio e Investigaciones},
series={Working paper / Center for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences;205},
title={The winners and losers of war : stock market effects of armed conflict, 1990-2000},
author={Schneider, Gerald and Tröger, Vera}
} | |
| kops.citation.iso690 | SCHNEIDER, Gerald, Vera TRÖGER, 2004. The winners and losers of war : stock market effects of armed conflict, 1990-2000. Madrid : Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, Inst. Juan March de Estudio e Investigaciones | deu |
| kops.citation.iso690 | SCHNEIDER, Gerald, Vera TRÖGER, 2004. The winners and losers of war : stock market effects of armed conflict, 1990-2000. Madrid : Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, Inst. Juan March de Estudio e Investigaciones | eng |
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| kops.flag.knbibliography | true | |
| kops.identifier.nbn | urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-170906 | deu |
| kops.submitter.email | alexander.braeunig@uni-konstanz.de | deu |
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