Increased support for collective defence in times of threat : European public opinion before and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

Were European public reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in line with the external threat hypothesis? Accordingly, the invasion should have increased the perception of threat from Russia’s territorial ambitions and support for collective defence. We review survey data from a diverse sample of ten European countries, collected before and after the event, showing that this was indeed the case. Threat perceptions and attitudes toward various aspects of collective defence – the general principle, readiness to defend other European nations, and NATO – increased fairly consistently across countries, and the association between perceptions and attitudes also increased. Findings regarding (changes in) attitudes towards defence efforts of the European Union were more ambiguous. We discuss the implications of these findings for the future of collective defence in Europe and the resilience of European societies more broadly.