Competitive Retrieval Strategy Causes Multimodal Response Distributions in Multiple-Cue Judgments

Abstract

Research on quantitative judgments from multiple cues suggests that judgments are simultaneously influenced by previously abstracted knowledge about cue–criterion relations and memories of past instances (or exemplars). Yet extant judgment theories leave 2 questions unanswered: (a) How are past exemplars and abstracted cue knowledge combined to form a judgment? (b) Are all past exemplars retrieved from memory to form the judgment (integrative retrieval) or is the judgment based on one exemplar (competitive retrieval)? To address these questions we propose and test a new model, CX-COM (combining Cue abstraction with eXemplar memory assuming COMpetitive memory retrieval). In a first step, CX-COM recalls only a single exemplar from memory. In a second step, the initially retrieved judgment is adjusted based on abstracted cue knowledge. Qualitatively, we show that CX-COM naturally captures judgment patterns that have been previously attributed to multiple strategies. Next, we tested CX-COM quantitatively in 2 experiments and found that it accounts well for people’s judgment behavior. In the second experiment we additionally tested 2 qualitative predictions of CX-COM: The existence of multimodal response distributions within participants and systematic variability in judgments depending on the distance between similar exemplars in memory. The empirical results confirm CX-COM’s assumptions. In sum, the evidence suggests that CX-COM is a viable new model for quantitative judgments and shows the importance of considering judgment variability in addition to average responses in judgment research.