Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

Type of Publication: Journal article
Publication status: Published
Author: Gonçalves, Leonel C.; Gerth, Juliane; Rossegger, Astrid; Noll, Thomas; Endrass, Jérôme
Year of publication: 2020
Published in: Sexual Abuse ; 32 (2020), 2. - pp. 203-219. - Sage Publications. - ISSN 1079-0632. - eISSN 1573-286X
Pubmed ID: 30623752
DOI (citable link): https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063218821117
Summary:
This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.
Subject (DDC): 150 Psychology
Bibliography of Konstanz: Yes
Refereed: Yes

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GONÇALVES, Leonel C., Juliane GERTH, Astrid ROSSEGGER, Thomas NOLL, Jérôme ENDRASS, 2020. Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland. In: Sexual Abuse. Sage Publications. 32(2), pp. 203-219. ISSN 1079-0632. eISSN 1573-286X. Available under: doi: 10.1177/1079063218821117

@article{Goncalves2020-03Predi-46145, title={Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland}, year={2020}, doi={10.1177/1079063218821117}, number={2}, volume={32}, issn={1079-0632}, journal={Sexual Abuse}, pages={203--219}, author={Gonçalves, Leonel C. and Gerth, Juliane and Rossegger, Astrid and Noll, Thomas and Endrass, Jérôme} }

2019-06-26T11:07:04Z Rossegger, Astrid Gerth, Juliane 2019-06-26T11:07:04Z Gonçalves, Leonel C. Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland 2020-03 This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment. Rossegger, Astrid Noll, Thomas Noll, Thomas Gonçalves, Leonel C. eng Endrass, Jérôme Gerth, Juliane Endrass, Jérôme

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