ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system

Cite This

Files in this item

Checksum: MD5:e5e8d90cda39749088d1d8088e32829b

HEGRE, Håvard, Marie ALLANSSON, Matthias BASEDAU, Michael COLARESI, Mihai CROICU, Hanne FJELDE, Frederick HOYLES, Lisa HULTMAN, Espen Geelmuyden RØD, Gerald SCHNEIDER, 2019. ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system. In: Journal of Peace Research. 56(2), pp. 155-174. ISSN 0022-3433. eISSN 1460-3578. Available under: doi: 10.1177/0022343319823860

@article{Hegre2019-03ViEWS-45097, title={ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system}, year={2019}, doi={10.1177/0022343319823860}, number={2}, volume={56}, issn={0022-3433}, journal={Journal of Peace Research}, pages={155--174}, author={Hegre, Håvard and Allansson, Marie and Basedau, Matthias and Colaresi, Michael and Croicu, Mihai and Fjelde, Hanne and Hoyles, Frederick and Hultman, Lisa and Rød, Espen Geelmuyden and Schneider, Gerald} }

<rdf:RDF xmlns:dcterms="" xmlns:dc="" xmlns:rdf="" xmlns:bibo="" xmlns:dspace="" xmlns:foaf="" xmlns:void="" xmlns:xsd="" > <rdf:Description rdf:about=""> <dc:contributor>Schneider, Gerald</dc:contributor> <dc:creator>Rød, Espen Geelmuyden</dc:creator> <dc:creator>Colaresi, Michael</dc:creator> <dc:creator>Croicu, Mihai</dc:creator> <dc:contributor>Fjelde, Hanne</dc:contributor> <dc:date rdf:datatype="">2019-02-19T12:26:08Z</dc:date> <dc:contributor>Basedau, Matthias</dc:contributor> <dcterms:title>ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system</dcterms:title> <dc:creator>Hoyles, Frederick</dc:creator> <dc:contributor>Rød, Espen Geelmuyden</dc:contributor> <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource=""/> <dc:creator>Allansson, Marie</dc:creator> <dc:language>eng</dc:language> <dcterms:rights rdf:resource=""/> <dc:contributor>Hoyles, Frederick</dc:contributor> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/jspui"/> <dc:contributor>Croicu, Mihai</dc:contributor> <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource=""/> <dc:creator>Basedau, Matthias</dc:creator> <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="">2019-02-19T12:26:08Z</dcterms:available> <dc:creator>Hultman, Lisa</dc:creator> <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to newconflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and NorthernMozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-termbehavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence inCameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to nonpublic conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.</dcterms:abstract> <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/> <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource=""/> <dc:contributor>Colaresi, Michael</dc:contributor> <dc:creator>Hegre, Håvard</dc:creator> <dc:creator>Schneider, Gerald</dc:creator> <dc:rights>Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International</dc:rights> <dcterms:issued>2019-03</dcterms:issued> <dc:contributor>Allansson, Marie</dc:contributor> <dc:contributor>Hultman, Lisa</dc:contributor> <bibo:uri rdf:resource=""/> <dc:contributor>Hegre, Håvard</dc:contributor> <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource=""/> <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource=""/> <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource=""/> <dc:creator>Fjelde, Hanne</dc:creator> </rdf:Description> </rdf:RDF>

Downloads since Feb 19, 2019 (Information about access statistics)

Hegre_2-y9pk0pol27bc4.pdf 282

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

Search KOPS


My Account