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Globalisierung und innenpolitische Stabilität : der Einfluß außenwirtschaftlicher Öffnung auf das innenpolitische Konfliktpotenzial

Globalisierung und innenpolitische Stabilität : der Einfluß außenwirtschaftlicher Öffnung auf das innenpolitische Konfliktpotenzial

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SCHNEIDER, Gerald, Margit BUSSMANN, 2005. Globalisierung und innenpolitische Stabilität : der Einfluß außenwirtschaftlicher Öffnung auf das innenpolitische Konfliktpotenzial. In: Deutschen Stiftung Friedensforschung Osnabrück 2005 (Forschung DFS)(2)

@misc{Schneider2005Globa-4119, title={Globalisierung und innenpolitische Stabilität : der Einfluß außenwirtschaftlicher Öffnung auf das innenpolitische Konfliktpotenzial}, year={2005}, author={Schneider, Gerald and Bussmann, Margit} }

2005 Bussmann, Margit application/pdf The continuing global integration of national economies has instigated an extensive discussion about whether this dimension of "globalisation" creates peace, fuels conflicts, or whether there is neither a direct nor indirect impact on the risk of political violence. Among the most fiercely discussed indirect effects are the consequences of foreign economic liberalisation on the internal cohesion of a society. Sceptics of globalisation attribute negative effects to the reduction of trade barriers and capital controls. In contrast, the thesis of the "liberal peace" expects that societies become more peaceful as a result of increased welfare through economic openness.<br />Standard political economy models of trade policy-making qualify this politically relevant debate in which systematically gathered evidence has not played a large role. Both standard approaches, the Ricardo-Viner- and the Heckscher-Ohlin model (or the Stolper-Samuelson model), assume that liberalisation at first leads to a distributive conflict. For this reason the losers of globalisation resist, at least in the short run, liberalisation. If the conflict over foreign economic liberalisation is fought along sectoral lines, opposition will come from the import-competing sector. If the division between factors is the key feature of trade policy-making, resistance will arise from the scarce factor. In the industrialized world, labor would loose under foreign economic liberalisation and capital would win. As capital is scarce in developing countries, the cleavage would take the opposite direction in these states.<br />Based on these foundational approaches in modern non-classical economics we deduct a model from which we draw two hypotheses: Whereas in the long run foreign economic openness increases the political stability in a society, the process of liberalisation can destabilise a society in the short-term. We tested these complementary hypotheses with different data sets and samples using a variety of definitions for foreign economic openness and liberalisation. The analysis of the global sample as well as the examination focussing on developing countries supported the optimistic assessment. In economically closed states the risk is higher than in economically open states that political institutions collapse and that actors use force to reach their goals. We also find some evidence that in times of foreign economic change political actors more likely resort to arms than in periods without political economic reforms. We could show this interrelation for example for states in Sub-Saharan Africa. Governments can defuse socio-political tensions resulting from foreign economic liberalisation through appropriate compensations, a finding that emerged in a comparative analysis that we conducted of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau. In developed countries foreign economic liberalisation causes less political violence; in these often democ-ratically organised states measures of liberalisation should rather influence the incidence of strikes. We examined this assumption for Latin America. Our hitherto existing empirical evidence confirms political economic models showing losers of globalisation turning against economic reforms. For example in Argentina we cannot observe a change in the general strike activities after initiatives to liberalise trade but see a higher level of strikes among members of the import-competing sector. 2011-03-24T10:10:28Z Bussmann, Margit Schneider, Gerald deposit-license 2011-03-24T10:10:28Z deu Globalisierung und innenpolitische Stabilität : der Einfluß außenwirtschaftlicher Öffnung auf das innenpolitische Konfliktpotenzial Zuerst ersch. unter diesem Titel bei der Deutschen Stiftung Friedensforschung, Osnabrück 2005 (Forschung DFS ; 2) Schneider, Gerald

Dateiabrufe seit 01.10.2014 (Informationen über die Zugriffsstatistik)

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