KOPS - Das Institutionelle Repositorium der Universität Konstanz

Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates

Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates

Zitieren

Dateien zu dieser Ressource

Prüfsumme: MD5:3dbff61906efc29fb327b48b181ffb40

ZENG, Jing, 2015. Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates

@techreport{Zeng2015Combi-32744, series={Working Paper Series / Department of Economics}, title={Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates}, year={2015}, number={2015-11}, author={Zeng, Jing} }

<rdf:RDF xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#" xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/" xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/rdf/resource/123456789/32744"> <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries' forecasts are often combined to obtain the forecasts of the Euro area macroeconomic aggregate variables. The aggregation weights which are used to produce the aggregates are often considered as combination weights. This paper investigates whether using different combination weights instead of the usual aggregation weights can help to provide more accurate forecasts. In this context, we examine the performance of equal weights, the least squares estimators of the weights, the combination method recently proposed by Hyndman et al. (2011) and the weights suggested by shrinkage methods. We find that some variables like real GDP and GDP deflator can be forecasted more precisely by using flexible combination weights. Furthermore, combining only forecasts of the three largest European countries helps to improve the forecasting performance. The persistence of the individual data seems to play an important role for the relative performance of the combination.</dcterms:abstract> <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2016-01-28T09:40:51Z</dc:date> <dcterms:rights rdf:resource="http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-20150914100631302-4485392-8"/> <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2016-01-28T09:40:51Z</dcterms:available> <dcterms:title>Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates</dcterms:title> <dcterms:issued>2015</dcterms:issued> <dc:contributor>Zeng, Jing</dc:contributor> <dc:creator>Zeng, Jing</dc:creator> <bibo:uri rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/32744"/> <dc:language>eng</dc:language> </rdf:Description> </rdf:RDF>

Dateiabrufe seit 28.01.2016 (Informationen über die Zugriffsstatistik)

Zeng_0-319645.pdf 32

Das Dokument erscheint in:

KOPS Suche


Stöbern

Mein Benutzerkonto