Forecasting political developments with the help of financial markets

Cite This

Files in this item

Checksum: MD5:70aa243116d9b9cf1cb7d729c73074ed

SCHNEIDER, Gerald, 2014. Forecasting political developments with the help of financial markets. In: WAYMAN, Frank Whelon ..., ed.. Predicting the future in science, economics, and politics. Cheltenham, UK:Elgar, pp. 213-231. ISBN 978-1-78347-186-7. Available under: doi: 10.4337/9781783471874.00022

@incollection{Schneider2014Forec-29224, title={Forecasting political developments with the help of financial markets}, year={2014}, doi={10.4337/9781783471874.00022}, isbn={978-1-78347-186-7}, address={Cheltenham, UK}, publisher={Elgar}, booktitle={Predicting the future in science, economics, and politics}, pages={213--231}, editor={Wayman, Frank Whelon ...}, author={Schneider, Gerald} }

<rdf:RDF xmlns:dcterms="" xmlns:dc="" xmlns:rdf="" xmlns:bibo="" xmlns:dspace="" xmlns:foaf="" xmlns:void="" xmlns:xsd="" > <rdf:Description rdf:about=""> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/jspui"/> <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/> <dc:creator>Schneider, Gerald</dc:creator> <dc:language>eng</dc:language> <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource=""/> <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource=""/> <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="">2014-11-06T10:32:06Z</dcterms:available> <dc:date rdf:datatype="">2014-11-06T10:32:06Z</dc:date> <dcterms:bibliographicCitation>Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics. Eds. Frank Whelon Wayman , Paul R. Williamson , Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , Solomon Polachek</dcterms:bibliographicCitation> <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource=""/> <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Using standard econometric techniques, I test the relative predictive accuracy of naïve autoregressive models in predicting political events with competing models that contain information from financial markets. The evidence assembled shows that information from stock markets sensibly improves the predictive accuracy of models that largely rely on the auto-regression of the series under examination to produce forecasts. The lagged development of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange allows me to predict the level of cooperation in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians the following day more precisely than with an alternative model that just takes the lagged political interactions into account. Because violent events come much more often as a surprise than cooperative developments, the inclusion of financial market information does, in return, not improve the accuracy in the prediction of the daily level of conflict in the Middle East.</dcterms:abstract> <dcterms:rights rdf:resource=""/> <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource=""/> <dc:contributor>Schneider, Gerald</dc:contributor> <bibo:uri rdf:resource=""/> <dcterms:title>Forecasting political developments with the help of financial markets</dcterms:title> <dcterms:issued>2014</dcterms:issued> <dc:rights>terms-of-use</dc:rights> </rdf:Description> </rdf:RDF>

Downloads since Nov 6, 2014 (Information about access statistics)

Schneider_253702.pdf 602

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Search KOPS


My Account