Aufgrund von Vorbereitungen auf eine neue Version von KOPS, können kommenden Montag und Dienstag keine Publikationen eingereicht werden. (Due to preparations for a new version of KOPS, no publications can be submitted next Monday and Tuesday.)
Type of Publication: | Journal article |
URI (citable link): | http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-280506 |
Author: | Wegwarth, Odette; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Gigerenzer, Gerd |
Year of publication: | 2011 |
Published in: | Medical Decision Making ; 31 (2011), 3. - pp. 386-394. - ISSN 0272-989X. - eISSN 1552-681X |
Pubmed ID: | 21191123 |
DOI (citable link): | https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989X10391469 |
Summary: |
Background
Increased 5-y survival for screened patients is often inferred to mean that fewer patients die of cancer. However, due to several biases, the 5-y survival rate is a misleading metric for evaluating a screening’s effectiveness. If physicians are not aware of these issues, informed screening counseling cannot take place. Methods Two questionnaire versions ("Group" and "time") presented 4 conditions: 5-y survival (5Y), 5-y survival and annual disease-specific mortality (5YM), annual disease-specific mortality (M), and 5-y survival, annual disease-specific mortality, and incidence (5YMI). Questionnaire version "time" presented data as a comparison between 2 time points and version "group" as a comparison between a screened and an unscreened group. All data were based on statistics for the same cancer site (prostate). Outcome variables were the recommendation of screening, reason- ing behind recommendation, judgment of the screening's effectiveness, and, if judged effective, a numerical esti- mate of how many fewer people out of 1000 would die if screened regularly. After randomized allocation, 65 Ger- man physicians in internal medicine and its subspecial- ities completed either of the 2 questionnaire versions. Results Across both versions, 66% of the physicians recommended screening when presented with 5Y, but only 8% of the same physicians made the recommenda- tion when presented with M (5YM: 31%; 5YMI: 55%). Also, 5Y made considerably more physicians (78%) judge the screening to be effective than any other condition (5YM: 31%; M: 5%; 5YMI: 49%) and led to the highest overestimations of benefit. Conclusion. A large number of physicians erroneously based their screening recommendation and judgment of screening's effectiveness on the 5-y survival rate. Results show that reporting disease-specific mortality rates can offer a simple solution to phy- sicians' confusion about the real effect of screening. |
Subject (DDC): | 150 Psychology |
Keywords: | decision rules, risk communication or risk perception, shared decision making, health literacy, numeracy |
Link to License: | In Copyright |
xmlui.ArtifactBrowser.ItemViewer.detail.textAllianzLicense | |
WEGWARTH, Odette, Wolfgang GAISSMAIER, Gerd GIGERENZER, 2011. Deceiving Numbers : Survival Rates and Their Impact on Doctor' Risk Communication. In: Medical Decision Making. 31(3), pp. 386-394. ISSN 0272-989X. eISSN 1552-681X. Available under: doi: 10.1177/0272989X10391469
@article{Wegwarth2011-05Decei-28050, title={Deceiving Numbers : Survival Rates and Their Impact on Doctor' Risk Communication}, year={2011}, doi={10.1177/0272989X10391469}, number={3}, volume={31}, issn={0272-989X}, journal={Medical Decision Making}, pages={386--394}, author={Wegwarth, Odette and Gaissmaier, Wolfgang and Gigerenzer, Gerd} }
Wegwarth_280506.pdf | 461 |