Simple Predictions Fueled by Capacity Limitations : When Are They Successful?

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Schooler, Lael J.; Rieskamp, Jörg

Simple Predictions Fueled by Capacity Limitations : When Are They Successful?

Files

Gaissmaier_279384.pdf(272.52 KB)

Date

2006

Authors

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

Schooler, Lael J.

Rieskamp, Jörg

Publication type

Journal article

Published in

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition ; 32 (2006), 5. - pp. 966-982. - ISSN 1939-1285. - eISSN 1939-1285

Abstract

Counterintuitively, Y. Kareev, I. Lieberman, and M. Lev (1997) found that a lower short-term memory capacity benefits performance on a correlation detection task. They assumed that people with low short-term memory capacity (low spans) perceived the correlations as more extreme because they relied on smaller samples, which are known to exaggerate correlations. The authors consider, as an alternative hypothesis, that low spans do not perceive exaggerated correlations but make simpler predictions. Modeling both hypotheses in ACT-R demonstrates that simpler predictions impair performance if the environment changes, whereas a more exaggerated perception of correlation is advantageous to detect a change. Congruent with differences in the way participants make predictions, 2 experiments revealed a low capacity advantage before the environment changes but a high capacity advantage afterward, although this pattern of results surprisingly only existed for men.

Subject (DDC)

150 Psychology

Keywords

short-term memory capacity,correlation detection,probability learning,ACT-R,sex differences

Cite This

ISO 690

GAISSMAIER, Wolfgang, Lael J. SCHOOLER, Jörg RIESKAMP, 2006. Simple Predictions Fueled by Capacity Limitations : When Are They Successful?. In: Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 32(5), pp. 966-982. ISSN 1939-1285. eISSN 1939-1285. Available under: doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.32.5.966

BibTex

@article{Gaissmaier2006-09Simpl-27938,
  year={2006},
  doi={10.1037/0278-7393.32.5.966},
  title={Simple Predictions Fueled by Capacity Limitations : When Are They Successful?},
  number={5},
  volume={32},
  issn={1939-1285},
  journal={Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition},
  pages={966--982},
  author={Gaissmaier, Wolfgang and Schooler, Lael J. and Rieskamp, Jörg}
}

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