Inflation Forecast Contracts
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| Type of Publication: | Working Paper/Technical Report |
| Author: | Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker |
| Year of publication: | 2012 |
| Series: | Centre for Economic Policy Research cepr / Discussion paper series;8933 |
| Summary: |
We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balance, paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare. Optimal inflation forecast contracts stipulate high rewards for accurate forecasts.
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| JEL Classification: | E58 |
| Subject (DDC): | 330 Economics |
| Comment on publication: | Link zur Originalveröffentlichung: http://www.cer.ethz.ch/research/WP-11-149.pdf |
| Bibliography of Konstanz: | Yes |
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GERSBACH, Hans, Volker HAHN, 2012. Inflation Forecast Contracts
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