Estimating constituency preferences from sparse survey data using auxiliary geographic information

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Political Analysis. 2011, 19(4), pp. 455-470. ISSN 1047-1987. eISSN 1476-4989. Available under: doi: 10.1093/pan/mpr034
Zusammenfassung

Measures of constituency preferences are of vital importance for the study of political representation and other research areas. Yet, such measures are often difficult to obtain. Previous survey-based estimates frequently lack precision and coverage due to small samples, rely on questionable assumptions or require detailed auxiliary information about the constituencies' population characteristics. We propose an alternative Bayesian hierarchical approach that exploits minimal geographic information readily available from digitalized constituency maps. If at hand, social background data are easily integrated. To validate the method, we use national polls and district-level results from the 2009 German Bundestag election, an empirical case for which detailed structural information is missing.

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ISO 690SELB, Peter, Simon MUNZERT, 2011. Estimating constituency preferences from sparse survey data using auxiliary geographic information. In: Political Analysis. 2011, 19(4), pp. 455-470. ISSN 1047-1987. eISSN 1476-4989. Available under: doi: 10.1093/pan/mpr034
BibTex
@article{Selb2011Estim-18980,
  year={2011},
  doi={10.1093/pan/mpr034},
  title={Estimating constituency preferences from sparse survey data using auxiliary geographic information},
  number={4},
  volume={19},
  issn={1047-1987},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  pages={455--470},
  author={Selb, Peter and Munzert, Simon}
}
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