Publikation: Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions
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2010
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2010, 107(41), pp. 17521-17526. ISSN 0027-8424. eISSN 1091-6490. Available under: doi: 10.1073/pnas.1004581107
Zusammenfassung
Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.
Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
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330 Wirtschaft
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climate change, energy, integrated assessment, population, households
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O'NEILL, Brian C., Michael DALTON, Regina FUCHS, Leiwen JIANG, Shonali PACHAURI, Katarina ZIGOVA, 2010. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2010, 107(41), pp. 17521-17526. ISSN 0027-8424. eISSN 1091-6490. Available under: doi: 10.1073/pnas.1004581107BibTex
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doi={10.1073/pnas.1004581107},
title={Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions},
number={41},
volume={107},
issn={0027-8424},
journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
pages={17521--17526},
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