What is going on in the oil market?

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2004
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Brevik, Frode
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Financial Markets and Portfolio Management. 2004, 18(4), pp. 442-457. ISSN 1555-4961. eISSN 1555-497X. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11408-004-0407-3
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In this article, we propose a consistent view on the recent oil-price history based on fundamental data and economic theory. We sum up: After the turn of the century three major stylized shocks have hit market. First, the demand curve has shifted fight outwards, mainly driven, as extensively reported in the media, by sustained growth in China and other Asian Countries. Second, supply disruptions in countries with low extraction costs (Iraq and Venezuela) have shifted the supply curve to the left. Third, we show that speculators adjust their inventories in order to take advantage of predictable price fluctuations and play themselves a major role in the price formation. Optimal storage theory implies that aggregate inventories are negatively related to the oil price and positively to the volatility of supply and demand shocks.

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ISO 690BREVIK, Frode, Axel KIND, 2004. What is going on in the oil market?. In: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management. 2004, 18(4), pp. 442-457. ISSN 1555-4961. eISSN 1555-497X. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11408-004-0407-3
BibTex
@article{Brevik2004going-28627,
  year={2004},
  doi={10.1007/s11408-004-0407-3},
  title={What is going on in the oil market?},
  number={4},
  volume={18},
  issn={1555-4961},
  journal={Financial Markets and Portfolio Management},
  pages={442--457},
  author={Brevik, Frode and Kind, Axel}
}
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