Predicting armed conflict : Time to adjust our expectations?

Cederman, Lars-Erik; Weidmann, Nils B.

Predicting armed conflict : Time to adjust our expectations?

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Date

2017

Authors

Cederman, Lars-Erik

Weidmann, Nils B.

DOI (citable link)

10.1126/science.aal4483

Collections

Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft

Publication type

Journal article

Publication status

Published

Published in

Science ; 355 (2017), 6324. - pp. 474-476. - ISSN 0036-8075. - eISSN 1095-9203

Abstract

This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field.

Subject (DDC)

320 Politics

Cite This

ISO 690

CEDERMAN, Lars-Erik, Nils B. WEIDMANN, 2017. Predicting armed conflict : Time to adjust our expectations?. In: Science. 355(6324), pp. 474-476. ISSN 0036-8075. eISSN 1095-9203. Available under: doi: 10.1126/science.aal4483

BibTex

@article{Cederman2017-02-03Predi-37221,
  year={2017},
  doi={10.1126/science.aal4483},
  title={Predicting armed conflict : Time to adjust our expectations?},
  number={6324},
  volume={355},
  issn={0036-8075},
  journal={Science},
  pages={474--476},
  author={Cederman, Lars-Erik and Weidmann, Nils B.}
}

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Bibliography of Konstanz

Yes