Publikation: Institutionelle Änderung im Welthandelssystem: Determinanten der Konfliktintensität bei GATT- und WTO-Dispute-Settlement-Verfahren
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Zusammenfassung
One of the main topics in the 'Uruguay-Round' was the institutional strengthening of the dispute-settlement procedure within the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade). A change was necessary after the member countries of the GATT had become aware of the incapabilties of the current dispute-settlement system. The main problem of the GATT dispute-settlement procedure was the ability of the dispute parties to block both the establishing of a panel and the adjudication. An effective and fast settlement of trade conflicts was therefore difficult. This institutional defect was supposed to be corrected by the establishment of the WTO (World Trade Organization) and the installation of the new dispute-settlement procedure. Obstruction by one of the dispute parties was not possible anymore.
The practical implications of the new WTO dispute-settlement system are somewhat unclear. The number of the cases has been rising since 1995, when the WTO dispute-settlement came into force. Additionally, a number of intensive trade conflicts within the WTO still exist.
The central point of this thesis addresses the effectiveness of the institutional change in the dispute-settlement procedure. Did the institutional change from GATT to WTO modify the trade conflicts in the GATT/WTO system? And as an overall question: Do institutions determine and regulate the intensity of trade conflicts or do other independent variables determine the outcome as well?
Arguments concerning the intensity of trade conflicts derived from Neoliberal Institutionalism, Realism and Domestic-Level-Approaches are tested by ordered logit and logistic analysis. Although the results are mixed there is a strong tendency which confirms the view of Neoliberal Institutionalism. The institutional change in the dispute-settlement procedure seems to have a significant effect on the intensity of trade conflicts within the GATT/WTO dispute-settlement system.
Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Eines der Hauptthemen der 'Uruguay Runde' war die institutionelle Stärkung des Dispute-Settlement Verfahrens (DSV). Eine Reform des DSV war notwendig geworden, da das existierende DSV des Allgemeinen Zoll- und Handelsabkommens (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)) augenscheinlich nicht mehr in der Lage war, aufkommende Handelskonflikte in befriedigendem Maße zu Regeln.
Das große Dilemma des GATT-DSV bestand immer darin, daß die Mitgliedstaaten durch ihr Veto die Einrichtung eines Panels oder die Verabschiedung eines bindenden Panelberichts verhindern konnten. Eine effektive Verurteilung von Staaten, welche die GATT Regeln brachen, war daher oft nicht möglich. Dieses institutionelle Problem wurde im geänderten DSV der WTO behoben.
Widersprüchlich ist die Beurteilung der tatsächlichen Relevanz der institutionellen Änderung des DSV. Seit Gründung der WTO nimmt die Zahl der Handelskonflikte vor dem DSV stark zu. Zusätzlich werden unter dem Regime der WTO intensive Handelskonflikte über relativ unbedeutende Sektoren geführt.
Die zentrale Frage dieser Arbeit ist daher, ob die institutionelle Veränderung des DSV, die mit der Gründung der WTO einherging, die intendierten Ergebnisse erbrachte. Können Institutionen Handelskonflikte so regulieren, daß sie weniger intensiv ausfallen oder sind andere Faktoren dafür verantwortlich?
Mit Hilfe von logistischen und ordinal logistischen Analyseverfahren werden Hypothesen aus dem Neoliberalen Institutionalismus, dem Realismus und innerstaatlichen Ansätzen Überprüft. Obwohl die Ergebnisse keine eindeutigen Schlüsse zulassen, wird die Sichtweise des Neoliberalen Institutionalismus tendenziel bestätigt. Der institutionelle Wechsel im DSV scheint einen signifikanten Effekt auf die Intensität von Handelskonflikten im GATT/WTO System zu haben.
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CEMERIN, Michael, 2000. Institutionelle Änderung im Welthandelssystem: Determinanten der Konfliktintensität bei GATT- und WTO-Dispute-Settlement-Verfahren [Master thesis]BibTex
@mastersthesis{Cemerin2000Insti-4013, year={2000}, title={Institutionelle Änderung im Welthandelssystem: Determinanten der Konfliktintensität bei GATT- und WTO-Dispute-Settlement-Verfahren}, author={Cemerin, Michael} }
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