Dynamics of Voting Propensity : Experimental Tests of Adaptive Learning Models

Shikano, Susumu; Kittel, Bernhard

Dynamics of Voting Propensity : Experimental Tests of Adaptive Learning Models

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Date

2016

Authors

Shikano, Susumu

Kittel, Bernhard

DOI (citable link)

10.1177/1065912916663654

Collections

Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft

Publication type

Journal article

Publication status

Published

Published in

Political Research Quarterly ; 69 (2016), 4. - pp. 813-829. - ISSN 1065-9129. - eISSN 1938-274X

Abstract

This paper aims to deliver experimental evidence on the dispute between two behavioral models of electoral turnout. Both models share the idea that the subjects’ voting propensities are updated from their past propensities, aspirations, and realized payoffs. However, they differ in the exact specification of the feedback mechanism. The first model has a strong feedback mechanism toward 50 percent, while the other has only moderate feedback. This difference leads to two distinct distributions of voter types: the first model generates more casual voters who vote and abstain from time to time. The latter generates more habitual voting behavior. Thus far, the latter model seemed to be better supported empirically because survey data reveal more habitual voters and abstainers than casual voters. Given that the two models differ in their propensity updating mechanism in dynamic processes, a more direct test of their assumptions as well as implications with survey data is still pending. We designed a laboratory experiment in which subjects repeatedly make turnout and voting decisions. The result from experimental data is mixed, but more supportive of the second model with habitual voters and abstainers.

Subject (DDC)

320 Politics

Keywords

electoral turnout, adaptive learning models, laboratory experiment, agent-based modeling

Cite This

ISO 690

SHIKANO, Susumu, Bernhard KITTEL, 2016. Dynamics of Voting Propensity : Experimental Tests of Adaptive Learning Models. In: Political Research Quarterly. 69(4), pp. 813-829. ISSN 1065-9129. eISSN 1938-274X. Available under: doi: 10.1177/1065912916663654

BibTex

@article{Shikano2016-12-01Dynam-35783,
  year={2016},
  doi={10.1177/1065912916663654},
  title={Dynamics of Voting Propensity : Experimental Tests of Adaptive Learning Models},
  number={4},
  volume={69},
  issn={1065-9129},
  journal={Political Research Quarterly},
  pages={813--829},
  author={Shikano, Susumu and Kittel, Bernhard}
}

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Bibliography of Konstanz

Yes