Linkages between climate variability, vulnerability and armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa : A review

Abstract

This Chapter reviews the current state of knowledge about linkages between climate variability and armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. It focuses on two questions: What do we know about the links between climate variability and armed conflict? What are the factors that increase the propensity of conflict in specific locations following climatic variations like droughts and excess rain? The review draws on recent studies that use data on the geographic location of armed conflict events that together with other disaggregated data allow for the study of sub-national variations in conflict, climate variability, and vulnerability and thus, areas that demand attention for conflict-sensitive adaptation to climate change. The Chapter concludes that there is currently little robust evidence for the claim that civil wars are directly caused by climatic variations. However, communal conflict between non-state groups might to a greater extent be affected by climate variability. Vulnerability to conflict due to climate variability is likely to be exacerbated by fragile ecological conditions (in particular in the Sahel region of Africa), poverty, political marginalisation and a history of conflict.