Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Political Business Cycle : a Panel Data Analysis
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2005
Autor:innen
Dreher, Axel
Vaubel, Roland
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Zusammenfassung
By combining expansionary open market operations with sales of foreign exchange, the central bank can expand the monetary base without depreciating the exchange rate. Thus, if there is a monetary political business cycle, sales of foreign exchange are especially likely before elections. Our panel data analysis for up to 158 countries in 1975-2001 supports this hypothesis. Foreign exchange reserves relative to trend GDP depend negatively on the pre-election index regardless of the exchange rate system. The relationship is significant and robust irrespective of the type of electoral variable, the choice of control variables and the estimation technique.
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330 Wirtschaft
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Foreign exchange interventions, political business cycles
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DREHER, Axel, Roland VAUBEL, 2005. Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Political Business Cycle : a Panel Data AnalysisBibTex
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