Sleeping Beauty in Branching Time

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FREITAG, Wolfgang, ed., Hans ROTT, ed., Holger STURM, ed., Alexandra ZINKE, ed.. Von Rang und Namen : philosophical essays in honour of Wolfgang Spohn. Münster: mentis, 2016, pp. 307-326. ISBN 978-3-95743-061-8
Zusammenfassung

We provide a novel analysis of the Sleeping Beauty scenario in a branching-time framework. In the scenario, the subject wakes up at a time that depends on the outcome of a chance event, and is then asked to assign probabilities to that event's outcomes. In our branching-time analysis we distinguish three types of epistemic uncertainty that play a role in the scenario, only two of which can be resolved by the common possible-world analysis. We show how our analysis justifies the so-called thirder position in the debate triggered by the Sleeping Beauty problem, and how it explains the substantive appeal of the alternative, so-called halver position. Thereby our approach lends support to, but also goes beyond, an analysis given recently by Wolfgang Spohn. We point out that our approach generalizes easily, and we show how to apply it to a more realistic scenario that avoids the assumption of perfect forgetting that is made in the original scenario.

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100 Philosophie
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ISO 690MÜLLER, Thomas, 2016. Sleeping Beauty in Branching Time. In: FREITAG, Wolfgang, ed., Hans ROTT, ed., Holger STURM, ed., Alexandra ZINKE, ed.. Von Rang und Namen : philosophical essays in honour of Wolfgang Spohn. Münster: mentis, 2016, pp. 307-326. ISBN 978-3-95743-061-8
BibTex
@incollection{Muller2016Sleep-36247,
  year={2016},
  title={Sleeping Beauty in Branching Time},
  isbn={978-3-95743-061-8},
  publisher={mentis},
  address={Münster},
  booktitle={Von Rang und Namen : philosophical essays in honour of Wolfgang Spohn},
  pages={307--326},
  editor={Freitag, Wolfgang and Rott, Hans and Sturm, Holger and Zinke, Alexandra},
  author={Müller, Thomas}
}
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