Courting Berlin, Countering Brussels : China’s Twin Track Approach to Germany and the EU

Abstract

Since Germany’s 2023 China Strategy entrenched “de-risking, not decoupling”, Beijing has pursued a deliberate twin track: reassuring Berlin through high-level access and visa-free mobility, while pushing back at the EU level when trade defense and technology controls bite – exploiting the Union’s division of labor to separate German signaling from Commission enforcement. Drawing on stress tests from EV tariffs, Germany’s 5G phase-outs, and espionage cases, the article argues that “managed estrangement” is now the baseline. A “unity with nuance” playbook – targeted, WTO-consistent tools, diversification of critical inputs, and credible counter-coercion – offers the best chance to keep de-risking rules-based rather than tit-for-tat.