Publikation:

Predicting Conflict in Space and Time

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Datum

2010

Autor:innen

Ward, Michael D.

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https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002710371669
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Open Access-Veröffentlichung

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Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft: Publikationen
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Published

Erschienen in

Journal of Conflict Resolution. Sage. 2010, 54(6), pp. 883-901. ISSN 0022-0027. eISSN 1552-8766. Available under: doi: 10.1177/0022002710371669

Zusammenfassung

The prediction of conflict constitutes a challenge to social scientists. This article explores whether the incorporation of geography can help us make our forecasts of political violence more accurate. The authors describe a spatially and temporally autoregressive discrete regression model, following the framework of Geyer and Thompson. This model is applied to geo-located data on attributes and conflict events in Bosnia over the period from March 1992 to October 1995. Results show that there is a strong spatial as well as temporal dimension to the outbreak of violence in Bosnia. The authors then explore the use of this model for predicting future conflict. Using a simulation approach, the predictive accuracy of the spatial—temporal model is compared to a standard regression model that only includes time lags. The results show that even in a difficult out-of-sample prediction task, the incorporation of space improves our forecasts of future conflict.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache

Fachgebiet (DDC)
320 Politik

Schlagwörter

civil war, Bosnia, conflict prediction, spatial statistics

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ISO 690WEIDMANN, Nils B., Michael D. WARD, 2010. Predicting Conflict in Space and Time. In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. Sage. 2010, 54(6), pp. 883-901. ISSN 0022-0027. eISSN 1552-8766. Available under: doi: 10.1177/0022002710371669
BibTex
@article{Weidmann2010Predi-67194,
  year={2010},
  doi={10.1177/0022002710371669},
  title={Predicting Conflict in Space and Time},
  number={6},
  volume={54},
  issn={0022-0027},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  pages={883--901},
  author={Weidmann, Nils B. and Ward, Michael D.}
}
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Interner Vermerk

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