Does the Ross recovery theorem work empirically?

dc.contributor.authorJackwerth, Jens
dc.contributor.authorMenner, Marco
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-01T12:54:50Z
dc.date.available2020-09-01T12:54:50Z
dc.date.issued2020-09eng
dc.description.abstractStarting with the fundamental relation that state prices are the product of physical probabilities and the stochastic discount factor, Ross (2015) shows that, given strong assumptions, knowing state prices suffices to back out physical probabilities and the stochastic discount factor at the same time. We find that such recovered physical distributions based on the S&P 500 index are incompatible with future returns and fail to predict future returns and realized variances. These negative results are even stronger when we add economically reasonable constraints. Simple benchmark methods based on a power utility agent or the historical return distribution cannot be rejected.eng
dc.description.versionpublishedde
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.006eng
dc.identifier.urihttps://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/50639
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.subjectRoss recovery; Stochastic discount factor; Risk-neutral density; Transition state prices; Physical probabilitieseng
dc.subject.ddc330eng
dc.titleDoes the Ross recovery theorem work empirically?eng
dc.typeJOURNAL_ARTICLEde
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@article{Jackwerth2020-09recov-50639,
  year={2020},
  doi={10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.006},
  title={Does the Ross recovery theorem work empirically?},
  number={3},
  volume={137},
  issn={0304-405X},
  journal={Journal of Financial Economics},
  pages={723--739},
  author={Jackwerth, Jens and Menner, Marco}
}
kops.citation.iso690JACKWERTH, Jens, Marco MENNER, 2020. Does the Ross recovery theorem work empirically?. In: Journal of Financial Economics. Elsevier. 2020, 137(3), pp. 723-739. ISSN 0304-405X. eISSN 1879-2774. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.006deu
kops.citation.iso690JACKWERTH, Jens, Marco MENNER, 2020. Does the Ross recovery theorem work empirically?. In: Journal of Financial Economics. Elsevier. 2020, 137(3), pp. 723-739. ISSN 0304-405X. eISSN 1879-2774. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.006eng
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kops.sourcefieldJournal of Financial Economics. Elsevier. 2020, <b>137</b>(3), pp. 723-739. ISSN 0304-405X. eISSN 1879-2774. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.006deu
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kops.sourcefield.plainJournal of Financial Economics. Elsevier. 2020, 137(3), pp. 723-739. ISSN 0304-405X. eISSN 1879-2774. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.006eng
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