Civil War

Abstract

Civil wars are intricate social, political and psychological phenomena. However, eco-nomics can offer analytical insights which are useful alongside the more conventionalapproach of case-studies. Indeed, the policy conclusions drawn from economic analysissometimes cast doubt on conventional advice. The use of economic theory and statis-tical evidence help to guard against excessive generalization from individual civil warsthat inevitably suffer from both a surfeit of possible explanations and advocacy. Rigor-ous empirical study of civil war requires a precise definition of an imprecise and poorlyobserved phenomenon, a process that provides considerable room for legitimate dis-agreement. Hence, we begin by discussing the choices made in constructing the majordata sets that describe the duration and severity of civil wars.Ideological, religious or ethnic differences are conventionally regarded as the causesof civil war. Economic theory explains civil war in the framework of incentives andconstraints rather than ideologies or identities. This framework enables economists toanalyze the distinctive feature of civil war: the emergence and persistence of a rebelarmy: some conditions make rebellion both more attractive and more feasible thanothers. Consistent with this emphasis on incentives and constraints, statistical studiessuggest that economic characteristics, notably the level, growth and structure of in-come, are important influences on the risk of war. In addition to the explanation of theinitiation and duration of civil wars, economic methods can also generate estimates oftheir costs and consequences. This is an essential step towards the cost-benefit analysisof policy interventions.