Publikation: Modelling the implications of changes in abiotic conditions for plankton dynamic in seasonally stratified lakes
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The impact of climate change on ecosystems is undeniable. One of the most widespread and documented responses of living organisms to climate change is the shift in the life cycle events or phenology of species. A species-specific response of the phenology of interacting species to climate change raises concerns on disruption of the trophic food web with potentially disastrous consequences for ecosystem and community structure. Our understanding of the mechanisms driving phenological changes is however still limited and there is no consistent trend in the predicted direction and amplitude of such changes. This thesis aims to improve our ability to predict the direction of phenological shift and understand the potential consequences for the freshwater plankton community. After a general introduction to the problem of phenological shift and a brief presentation of the seasonal dynamic of freshwater plankton communities, I first investigate the underlying controlling processes of one of the key events of plankton seasonality, i.e. the onset of phytoplankton spring bloom on the European scale. Four controlling processes of the onset of algal bloom are identified and will depend on lake characteristics such as geographical location, maximum depth and turbidity. In a second step, I apply this mechanistic understanding of the onset of algal bloom to look at its phenological synchrony with its direct consumer. I show that the phenological synchrony varies greatly with lake characteristics and that its response to climate warming will depend on the effect of climate changes on the phenological synchrony with the peak in its direct consumer, i.e. Daphnia. Climate warming moves both phenological events forward in time and can predictably lengthen or shorten the delay between them by up to 60 days. Thirdly, I examine the impact of top-down versus bottom-up controls on the shape of the seasonal plankton dynamic and explore the effect of climate warming and eutrophication scenarios on freshwater plankton phenologies on a full seasonal scale. The results show that the typical seasonal plankton dynamic is driven by seasonally variations in the relative importance of resource availability and grazing pressure. Climate warming is expected to play a major role in the shift in phenology timing whereas eutrophication will affect the phenology height. Finally, in a general discussion, I will summarize the major findings of this thesis, extrapolate these insights to a broader context, identify the main limitations inherent to the applied method and finally try to give future directions on how to overcome these limitations.
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GRONCHI, Enzo, 2022. Modelling the implications of changes in abiotic conditions for plankton dynamic in seasonally stratified lakes [Dissertation]. Konstanz: University of KonstanzBibTex
@phdthesis{Gronchi2022Model-67381, year={2022}, title={Modelling the implications of changes in abiotic conditions for plankton dynamic in seasonally stratified lakes}, author={Gronchi, Enzo}, address={Konstanz}, school={Universität Konstanz} }
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