Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring

Lade...
Vorschaubild
Dateien
Zu diesem Dokument gibt es keine Dateien.
Datum
2020
Autor:innen
Scocco, Paola
Catorci, Andrea
Desinov, Lev V.
Belyaev, Mikhail Y.
Martin Mai, P.
Herausgeber:innen
Kontakt
ISSN der Zeitschrift
Electronic ISSN
ISBN
Bibliografische Daten
Verlag
Schriftenreihe
Auflagebezeichnung
DOI (zitierfähiger Link)
ArXiv-ID
Internationale Patentnummer
Link zur Lizenz
Angaben zur Forschungsförderung
Projekt
Open Access-Veröffentlichung
Open Access Hybrid
Core Facility der Universität Konstanz
Gesperrt bis
Titel in einer weiteren Sprache
Forschungsvorhaben
Organisationseinheiten
Zeitschriftenheft
Publikationstyp
Zeitschriftenartikel
Publikationsstatus
Published
Erschienen in
Ethology. Wiley. 2020, 126(9), pp. 931-941. ISSN 0179-1613. eISSN 1439-0310. Available under: doi: 10.1111/eth.13078
Zusammenfassung

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Fachgebiet (DDC)
570 Biowissenschaften, Biologie
Schlagwörter
collective behavior, disaster, earthquake, emergent sensing, forecasting
Konferenz
Rezension
undefined / . - undefined, undefined
Zitieren
ISO 690WIKELSKI, Martin, Uschi MÜLLER, Paola SCOCCO, Andrea CATORCI, Lev V. DESINOV, Mikhail Y. BELYAEV, Daniel A. KEIM, Winfried POHLMEIER, Gerhard FECHTELER, P. MARTIN MAI, 2020. Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. In: Ethology. Wiley. 2020, 126(9), pp. 931-941. ISSN 0179-1613. eISSN 1439-0310. Available under: doi: 10.1111/eth.13078
BibTex
@article{Wikelski2020-09Poten-50148,
  year={2020},
  doi={10.1111/eth.13078},
  title={Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring},
  number={9},
  volume={126},
  issn={0179-1613},
  journal={Ethology},
  pages={931--941},
  author={Wikelski, Martin and Müller, Uschi and Scocco, Paola and Catorci, Andrea and Desinov, Lev V. and Belyaev, Mikhail Y. and Keim, Daniel A. and Pohlmeier, Winfried and Fechteler, Gerhard and Martin Mai, P.}
}
RDF
<rdf:RDF
    xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"
    xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
    xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
    xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/"
    xmlns:dspace="http://digital-repositories.org/ontologies/dspace/0.1.0#"
    xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/"
    xmlns:void="http://rdfs.org/ns/void#"
    xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > 
  <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/50148">
    <dcterms:issued>2020-09</dcterms:issued>
    <dc:contributor>Wikelski, Martin</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M  ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations.</dcterms:abstract>
    <dc:creator>Müller, Uschi</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Müller, Uschi</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Catorci, Andrea</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Catorci, Andrea</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/50148/1/Wikelski_2-1hyqzstlfz3mt5.pdf"/>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/28"/>
    <dc:contributor>Pohlmeier, Winfried</dc:contributor>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/43615"/>
    <dcterms:title>Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring</dcterms:title>
    <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2020-07-07T08:03:43Z</dcterms:available>
    <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2020-07-07T08:03:43Z</dc:date>
    <dc:contributor>Scocco, Paola</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Pohlmeier, Winfried</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Desinov, Lev V.</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Belyaev, Mikhail Y.</dc:creator>
    <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
    <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/"/>
    <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/50148/1/Wikelski_2-1hyqzstlfz3mt5.pdf"/>
    <dc:creator>Martin Mai, P.</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/28"/>
    <dc:contributor>Keim, Daniel A.</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Keim, Daniel A.</dc:creator>
    <dc:rights>Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International</dc:rights>
    <dc:contributor>Martin Mai, P.</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Fechteler, Gerhard</dc:creator>
    <bibo:uri rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/50148"/>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/43615"/>
    <dc:creator>Desinov, Lev V.</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Scocco, Paola</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Belyaev, Mikhail Y.</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Wikelski, Martin</dc:creator>
    <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/>
    <dc:contributor>Fechteler, Gerhard</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:rights rdf:resource="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"/>
  </rdf:Description>
</rdf:RDF>
Interner Vermerk
xmlui.Submission.submit.DescribeStep.inputForms.label.kops_note_fromSubmitter
Kontakt
URL der Originalveröffentl.
Prüfdatum der URL
Prüfungsdatum der Dissertation
Finanzierungsart
Kommentar zur Publikation
Allianzlizenz
Corresponding Authors der Uni Konstanz vorhanden
Internationale Co-Autor:innen
Universitätsbibliographie
Ja
Begutachtet
Ja
Diese Publikation teilen