Modeling vulnerability of protected areas to invasion by chromolaena odorata under current and future climates

Abstract

Invasive plant species and climate change are among the biggest threats to the ecological integrity of many ecosystems, including those of protected areas. Effective management of invasive plants requires information regarding their spatial distributions. Using maximum entropy, we modeled habitat suitability for an invasive plant species Chromolaena odorata under current and future climatic conditions (HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) in protected areas of four West African countries (Benin, Cˆote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo). Under current climatic conditions, approximately 73% of total land area within the protected areas was suitable for colonization by C. odorata. Under future climate projections, the total area of suitable habitats for this invasive plant was projected to decrease by 7–9% (HadGEM2-ES) and 12–14% (MIROC5). Countryspecific patterns suggest that major protected areas in Cˆote d’Ivoire and Ghana will be more vulnerable to invasion by C. odorata than those in Benin and Togo under both current and future climatic scenarios. To maintain normal ecosystem functioning and provisioning of ecosystem services within the protected areas studied here, locations that have been identified as most vulnerable to invasion by C. odorata should be accorded proportionately higher priority when formulating appropriate management strategies.