Biases in belief reports

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dc.contributor.authorFolli, Dominik
dc.contributor.authorWolff, Irenaeus
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-28T13:15:05Z
dc.date.available2022-02-28T13:15:05Z
dc.date.issued2022eng
dc.description.abstractBelief elicitation is important in many different fields of economic research. We show that how a researcher elicits such beliefs – in particular, whether the belief is about the participant’s opponent, an unrelated other, or the population of others – strongly affects the belief reports. We study the underlying processes and find a clear consensus effect. Yet, when matching the opponent’s action would lead to a low payoff and the researcher asks for the belief about this opponent, ex-post rationalization kicks in and beliefs are re-adjusted again. Hence, we recommend to ask about unrelated others or about the population in such cases, as ‘opponent beliefs’ are even more detached from the beliefs participants had when deciding about their actions in the corresponding game. We find no evidence of wishful thinking in any of the treatments.eng
dc.description.versionpublishedeng
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458eng
dc.identifier.ppn1794384987
dc.identifier.urihttps://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/56694
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.rightsterms-of-use
dc.rights.urihttps://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/
dc.subjectBelief elicitation, Belief formation, Belief-action consistency, Framing effects, Projection, Consensus effect, Wishful thinking, Ex-post rationalizationeng
dc.subject.ddc330eng
dc.titleBiases in belief reportseng
dc.typeJOURNAL_ARTICLEeng
dspace.entity.typePublication
kops.citation.bibtex
@article{Folli2022Biase-56694,
  year={2022},
  doi={10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458},
  title={Biases in belief reports},
  volume={88},
  issn={0167-4870},
  journal={Journal of Economic Psychology},
  author={Folli, Dominik and Wolff, Irenaeus},
  note={Article Number: 102458}
}
kops.citation.iso690FOLLI, Dominik, Irenaeus WOLFF, 2022. Biases in belief reports. In: Journal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, 88, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458deu
kops.citation.iso690FOLLI, Dominik, Irenaeus WOLFF, 2022. Biases in belief reports. In: Journal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, 88, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458eng
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    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Belief elicitation is important in many different fields of economic research. We show that how a researcher elicits such beliefs – in particular, whether the belief is about the participant’s opponent, an unrelated other, or the population of others – strongly affects the belief reports. We study the underlying processes and find a clear consensus effect. Yet, when matching the opponent’s action would lead to a low payoff and the researcher asks for the belief about this opponent, ex-post rationalization kicks in and beliefs are re-adjusted again. Hence, we recommend to ask about unrelated others or about the population in such cases, as ‘opponent beliefs’ are even more detached from the beliefs participants had when deciding about their actions in the corresponding game. We find no evidence of wishful thinking in any of the treatments.</dcterms:abstract>
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kops.sourcefieldJournal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, <b>88</b>, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458deu
kops.sourcefield.plainJournal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, 88, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458deu
kops.sourcefield.plainJournal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, 88, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458eng
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source.periodicalTitleJournal of Economic Psychologyeng
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