Publikation:

Biases in belief reports

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2022

Autor:innen

Folli, Dominik

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Journal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, 88, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458

Zusammenfassung

Belief elicitation is important in many different fields of economic research. We show that how a researcher elicits such beliefs – in particular, whether the belief is about the participant’s opponent, an unrelated other, or the population of others – strongly affects the belief reports. We study the underlying processes and find a clear consensus effect. Yet, when matching the opponent’s action would lead to a low payoff and the researcher asks for the belief about this opponent, ex-post rationalization kicks in and beliefs are re-adjusted again. Hence, we recommend to ask about unrelated others or about the population in such cases, as ‘opponent beliefs’ are even more detached from the beliefs participants had when deciding about their actions in the corresponding game. We find no evidence of wishful thinking in any of the treatments.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache

Fachgebiet (DDC)
330 Wirtschaft

Schlagwörter

Belief elicitation, Belief formation, Belief-action consistency, Framing effects, Projection, Consensus effect, Wishful thinking, Ex-post rationalization

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ISO 690FOLLI, Dominik, Irenaeus WOLFF, 2022. Biases in belief reports. In: Journal of Economic Psychology. Elsevier. 2022, 88, 102458. ISSN 0167-4870. eISSN 1872-7719. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458
BibTex
@article{Folli2022Biase-56694,
  year={2022},
  doi={10.1016/j.joep.2021.102458},
  title={Biases in belief reports},
  volume={88},
  issn={0167-4870},
  journal={Journal of Economic Psychology},
  author={Folli, Dominik and Wolff, Irenaeus},
  note={Article Number: 102458}
}
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