Challenging the Status Quo : Predicting Violence with Sparse Decision-Making Data

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International Interactions. Taylor & Francis. 2022, 48(4), pp. 697-713. ISSN 0305-0629. eISSN 1547-7444. Available under: doi: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2051024
Zusammenfassung

This article addresses the discrepancy between the explanation and the prediction of political violence through the development of different models that approximate the decision-making on war and peace. Borrowing from the crisis bargaining literature, the prediction models particularly consider the situational attributes through which players can challenge the status quo. We distinguish between direct and indirect proxies of a weakening of the status quo and show that adding decision-making data can improve the accuracy of cross-sectional forecasting models. The study, which demonstrates the increased conflict risk due to the COVID-19 pandemic and thus another development upsetting the status quo, discusses the usefulness of decision-making forecasts through various case study illustrations.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Fachgebiet (DDC)
320 Politik
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Prediction; Civil War; Africa; Political Violence; Deterrence; Crisis bargaining
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ISO 690BÄTZ, Konstantin, Ann-Cathrin KLÖCKNER, Gerald SCHNEIDER, 2022. Challenging the Status Quo : Predicting Violence with Sparse Decision-Making Data. In: International Interactions. Taylor & Francis. 2022, 48(4), pp. 697-713. ISSN 0305-0629. eISSN 1547-7444. Available under: doi: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2051024
BibTex
@article{Batz2022-07-04Chall-56981,
  year={2022},
  doi={10.1080/03050629.2022.2051024},
  title={Challenging the Status Quo : Predicting Violence with Sparse Decision-Making Data},
  number={4},
  volume={48},
  issn={0305-0629},
  journal={International Interactions},
  pages={697--713},
  author={Bätz, Konstantin and Klöckner, Ann-Cathrin and Schneider, Gerald}
}
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