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Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle : Structural Evidence for the U.S.

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2013

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European Union (EU): 118306

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Journal of International Money and Finance. 2013, 37, pp. 324-352. ISSN 0261-5606. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.012

Zusammenfassung

This paper evaluates the relative importance of commodity price shocks in the U.S. business cycle. Therefore, we extend the standard set of business cycle shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. The resulting SVAR shows that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic fluctuations — second only to investment-specific technology shocks — particularly with respect to inflation. Neutral technology shocks and monetary policy shocks, on the other hand, seem less relevant at business cycle frequencies. Neutral technology shocks rather play an important role at low frequencies.

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Fachgebiet (DDC)
330 Wirtschaft

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Business cycles, Commodity price shocks, Structural VAR

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ISO 690GUBLER, Matthias, Matthias Sebastian HERTWECK, 2013. Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle : Structural Evidence for the U.S.. In: Journal of International Money and Finance. 2013, 37, pp. 324-352. ISSN 0261-5606. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.012
BibTex
@article{Gubler2013Commo-25183,
  year={2013},
  doi={10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.012},
  title={Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle : Structural Evidence for the U.S.},
  volume={37},
  issn={0261-5606},
  journal={Journal of International Money and Finance},
  pages={324--352},
  author={Gubler, Matthias and Hertweck, Matthias Sebastian}
}
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