Economic stress or random variation? : Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth

Lade...
Vorschaubild
Dateien
Schnettler_2-1qaray6sujpih2.pdf
Schnettler_2-1qaray6sujpih2.pdfGröße: 471.96 KBDownloads: 268
Datum
2014
Autor:innen
Klüsener, Sebastian
Herausgeber:innen
Kontakt
ISSN der Zeitschrift
Electronic ISSN
ISBN
Bibliografische Daten
Verlag
Schriftenreihe
Auflagebezeichnung
ArXiv-ID
Internationale Patentnummer
Angaben zur Forschungsförderung
Projekt
Open Access-Veröffentlichung
Open Access Gold
Sammlungen
Core Facility der Universität Konstanz
Gesperrt bis
Titel in einer weiteren Sprache
Forschungsvorhaben
Organisationseinheiten
Zeitschriftenheft
Publikationstyp
Zeitschriftenartikel
Publikationsstatus
Published
Erschienen in
Zusammenfassung

Background
The economic stress hypothesis (ESH) predicts decreases in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) following economic decline. However, as many factors influence the SRB, this hypothesis is difficult to test empirically. Thus, researchers make use of quasi-experiments such as German reunification: The economy in East, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. A co-occurrence of a decline in the East German SRB in 1991 has been interpreted by some as support for the ESH. However, another explanation might be that the low SRB in 1991 stems from increased random variation in the East German SRB due to a drastically reduced number of births during the crisis. We look into this alternative random variation hypothesis (RVH) by re-examining the German case with more detailed data.

Methods
Our analysis has two parts. First, using aggregate-level birth register data for all births in the period between 1946 and 2011, we plot the quantum and variance of the SRB and the number of births and unemployment rates, separately for East and West Germany, and conduct a time series analysis on the East German SRB over time. Second, we model the odds for a male birth at the individual level in a multiple logistic regression (1991–2010, ~13.9 million births). Explanatory variables are related to the level of the individual birth, the mother of the child born, and the regional economic context.

Results
The aggregate-level analysis reveals a higher degree of variation of the SRB in East Germany. Deviations from the time trend occur in several years, seemingly unrelated to economic development, and the deviation in 1991 is not statistically significant. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991-drop in the East German SRB cannot directly be attributed to economic development and that there is no statistically significant effect of economic development on sex determination in East or West Germany.

Conclusion
Outcomes support the RVH but not the ESH. Furthermore, our results speak against a statistically significant effect of the reunification event itself on the East German SRB. We discuss the relative importance of behavioral and physiological responses to macro-level stressors, a distinction that may help integrate previously mixed findings.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Fachgebiet (DDC)
300 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie
Schlagwörter
Konferenz
Rezension
undefined / . - undefined, undefined
Zitieren
ISO 690SCHNETTLER, Sebastian, Sebastian KLÜSENER, 2014. Economic stress or random variation? : Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth. In: Environmental Health. 2014, 13, 117. eISSN 1476-069X. Available under: doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-13-117
BibTex
@article{Schnettler2014-12-22Econo-41701,
  year={2014},
  doi={10.1186/1476-069X-13-117},
  title={Economic stress or random variation? : Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth},
  volume={13},
  journal={Environmental Health},
  author={Schnettler, Sebastian and Klüsener, Sebastian},
  note={Article Number: 117}
}
RDF
<rdf:RDF
    xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"
    xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
    xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
    xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/"
    xmlns:dspace="http://digital-repositories.org/ontologies/dspace/0.1.0#"
    xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/"
    xmlns:void="http://rdfs.org/ns/void#"
    xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > 
  <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/41701">
    <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/41701/1/Schnettler_2-1qaray6sujpih2.pdf"/>
    <dc:contributor>Klüsener, Sebastian</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Background&lt;br /&gt;The economic stress hypothesis (ESH) predicts decreases in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) following economic decline. However, as many factors influence the SRB, this hypothesis is difficult to test empirically. Thus, researchers make use of quasi-experiments such as German reunification: The economy in East, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. A co-occurrence of a decline in the East German SRB in 1991 has been interpreted by some as support for the ESH. However, another explanation might be that the low SRB in 1991 stems from increased random variation in the East German SRB due to a drastically reduced number of births during the crisis. We look into this alternative random variation hypothesis (RVH) by re-examining the German case with more detailed data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Methods&lt;br /&gt;Our analysis has two parts. First, using aggregate-level birth register data for all births in the period between 1946 and 2011, we plot the quantum and variance of the SRB and the number of births and unemployment rates, separately for East and West Germany, and conduct a time series analysis on the East German SRB over time. Second, we model the odds for a male birth at the individual level in a multiple logistic regression (1991–2010, ~13.9 million births). Explanatory variables are related to the level of the individual birth, the mother of the child born, and the regional economic context.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Results&lt;br /&gt;The aggregate-level analysis reveals a higher degree of variation of the SRB in East Germany. Deviations from the time trend occur in several years, seemingly unrelated to economic development, and the deviation in 1991 is not statistically significant. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991-drop in the East German SRB cannot directly be attributed to economic development and that there is no statistically significant effect of economic development on sex determination in East or West Germany.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Conclusion&lt;br /&gt;Outcomes support the RVH but not the ESH. Furthermore, our results speak against a statistically significant effect of the reunification event itself on the East German SRB. We discuss the relative importance of behavioral and physiological responses to macro-level stressors, a distinction that may help integrate previously mixed findings.</dcterms:abstract>
    <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/"/>
    <dc:creator>Schnettler, Sebastian</dc:creator>
    <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
    <dcterms:issued>2014-12-22</dcterms:issued>
    <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/>
    <dcterms:title>Economic stress or random variation? : Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth</dcterms:title>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/34"/>
    <dc:rights>Attribution 2.0 Generic</dc:rights>
    <dcterms:rights rdf:resource="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/"/>
    <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2018-03-06T14:49:54Z</dc:date>
    <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2018-03-06T14:49:54Z</dcterms:available>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/34"/>
    <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/41701/1/Schnettler_2-1qaray6sujpih2.pdf"/>
    <dc:contributor>Schnettler, Sebastian</dc:contributor>
    <bibo:uri rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/41701"/>
    <dc:creator>Klüsener, Sebastian</dc:creator>
  </rdf:Description>
</rdf:RDF>
Interner Vermerk
xmlui.Submission.submit.DescribeStep.inputForms.label.kops_note_fromSubmitter
Kontakt
URL der Originalveröffentl.
Prüfdatum der URL
Prüfungsdatum der Dissertation
Finanzierungsart
Kommentar zur Publikation
Allianzlizenz
Corresponding Authors der Uni Konstanz vorhanden
Internationale Co-Autor:innen
Universitätsbibliographie
Ja
Begutachtet
Diese Publikation teilen