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Biases in the Football Betting Market

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2017

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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2977118
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Zusammenfassung

This research uses football online betting odds of a broad variety of matches and bookmakers to identify known biases in odds pricing, namely the favorite-longshot bias and the away-favorite bias. Furthermore, it tries to answer the question whether a naive strategy of betting against these biases can be profitable. Our findings are consistent with previous research, confirming the existence of the favorite-longshot bias, but turn out to be in contrast with regard to the away-favorite bias, for which there is little evidence in the data. Also, we find that a strategy of betting against the favorite-longshot bias can be marginally profitable, whereas bets in favor of it result in large losses on average.

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004 Informatik

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betting market, sports forecasting, bias analysis, favorite-longshot bias, betting strategy

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ISO 690DAUNHAWER, Imant, David SCHOCH, Sven KOSUB, 2017. Biases in the Football Betting Market
BibTex
@techreport{Daunhawer2017Biase-44938,
  year={2017},
  doi={10.2139/ssrn.2977118},
  title={Biases in the Football Betting Market},
  author={Daunhawer, Imant and Schoch, David and Kosub, Sven}
}
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    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">This research uses football online betting odds of a broad variety of matches and bookmakers to identify known biases in odds pricing, namely the favorite-longshot bias and the away-favorite bias. Furthermore, it tries to answer the question whether a naive strategy of betting against these biases can be profitable. Our findings are consistent with previous research, confirming the existence of the favorite-longshot bias, but turn out to be in contrast with regard to the away-favorite bias, for which there is little evidence in the data. Also, we find that a strategy of betting against the favorite-longshot bias can be marginally profitable, whereas bets in favor of it result in large losses on average.</dcterms:abstract>
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