Does climate adaptation aid reach those most in need? : Sub-national evidence from Philippine provinces

Abstract

Despite commitments from developed nations to support the most at-risk populations in the Global South in adapting to climate change, there is little evidence on whether climate adaptation aid effectively reaches those most in need. This is partly due to a lack of attention to within-country disparities, as existing studies overwhelmingly focus on international rather than sub-national aid allocation. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the provincial distribution of multilateral climate adaptation projects in the Philippines, a country highly exposed to natural hazards, using a novel panel dataset that integrates geo-coded adaptation projects with multiple climate risk indicators. In addition to disaggregating adaptation aid spatially, the analysis contributes methodologically by developing a comprehensive measurement strategy for different dimensions of climate risk that separately accounts for natural hazard exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and realized disaster impacts. Our findings indicate that neither hazard exposure nor limited adaptive capacity or sensitivity consistently predict aid distribution. Instead, recent hazard impacts, specifically cyclone-related fatalities, emerge as the primary determinant. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that sub-national political dynamics and patterns of political alignment play a significant role in determining the distribution of adaptation projects across provinces. These results point to a predominantly reactive, rather than preventive, approach to adaptation funding at the sub-national level, highlighting the urgent need for more transparent, strategically targeted, and depoliticized aid allocation mechanisms.