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Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

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2020

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Noll, Thomas

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https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063218821117
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Sexual Abuse. Sage Publications. 2020, 32(2), pp. 203-219. ISSN 1079-0632. eISSN 1573-286X. Available under: doi: 10.1177/1079063218821117

Zusammenfassung

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

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ISO 690DA CUNHA GONCALVES, Leonel, Juliane GERTH, Astrid ROSSEGGER, Thomas NOLL, Jérôme ENDRASS, 2020. Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland. In: Sexual Abuse. Sage Publications. 2020, 32(2), pp. 203-219. ISSN 1079-0632. eISSN 1573-286X. Available under: doi: 10.1177/1079063218821117
BibTex
@article{daCunhaGoncalves2020-03Predi-46145,
  year={2020},
  doi={10.1177/1079063218821117},
  title={Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland},
  number={2},
  volume={32},
  issn={1079-0632},
  journal={Sexual Abuse},
  pages={203--219},
  author={da Cunha Goncalves, Leonel and Gerth, Juliane and Rossegger, Astrid and Noll, Thomas and Endrass, Jérôme}
}
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