Where will Invasive Plants Colonize in Response to Climate Change : Predicting the Invasion of Galinsoga quadriradiata in China

Abstract

Galinsoga quadriradiata, an annual herbaceous plant originating in Central and South America, has caused great harm to agriculture and natural communities in China recently. However, the distribution and influence of this invader are poorly documented. It is also unclear how climate change will affect the expansion of G. quadriradiata. In this study, we built a series of maximum entropy (Maxent) models to predict the potential distribution areas of G. quadriradiata under current and future (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) climatic scenarios using six uncorrelated bioclimatic variables (obtained from the fifth report of the IPCC) and 274 occurrences. The Maxent model obtained high AUC value of 0.960, and the prediction showed that highly suitable areas for G. quadriradiata mainly locate in central, eastern, southwestern, and southern China. In the context of climate change, its suitable area will tend to contract in the future and disappear in southern and eastern China, but will expand in northeastern China. Overall, by the end of the century, its suitable area will be reduced by 12.1% and move northward in China. Our study suggests that G. quadriradiata has high invasive potential currently; however, to some extent, ongoing climate change will inhibit its expansion in China. In addition, the invasion risk of G. quadriradiata in northeastern China will continuously increase, keeping pace with global climate change in the coming decades, while the invasion risk in central, southwestern, and eastern China will stay continuously. Urgent preventative measures against G. quadriradiata invasion are necessary in these areas.