Publikation:

The electoral consequences of welfare state changes : a sober look at theory and evidence

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Datum

2023

Autor:innen

Bandau, Frank

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28. Februar 2025

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Journal of European Public Policy. Taylor & Francis. 2023, 30(8), S. 1633-1656. ISSN 1350-1763. eISSN 1466-4429. Verfügbar unter: doi: 10.1080/13501763.2022.2096669

Zusammenfassung

The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discuss why the assumptions underlying the electoral consequences argument may be questionable. We then conduct an empirical analysis of the electoral fates of government parties in 20 European countries. A wide range of statistical specifications provide practically no evidence for electoral consequences of welfare state changes even under favorable conditions. The importance of welfare changes for electoral outcomes may therefore be overstated.

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Fachgebiet (DDC)
320 Politik

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ISO 690AHRENS, Leo, Frank BANDAU, 2023. The electoral consequences of welfare state changes : a sober look at theory and evidence. In: Journal of European Public Policy. Taylor & Francis. 2023, 30(8), S. 1633-1656. ISSN 1350-1763. eISSN 1466-4429. Verfügbar unter: doi: 10.1080/13501763.2022.2096669
BibTex
@article{Ahrens2023-08-03elect-71173,
  year={2023},
  doi={10.1080/13501763.2022.2096669},
  title={The electoral consequences of welfare state changes : a sober look at theory and evidence},
  number={8},
  volume={30},
  issn={1350-1763},
  journal={Journal of European Public Policy},
  pages={1633--1656},
  author={Ahrens, Leo and Bandau, Frank}
}
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