Trophic mismatch requires seasonal heterogeneity of warming

Abstract

Climate warming has been shown to advance the phenology of species. Asynchronous changes in phenology between interacting species may disrupt feeding interactions (phenological mismatch) which could have tremendous consequences for ecosystem functioning. Long-term field observations have suggested asynchronous shifts in phenology with warming whereas experimental studies have not been conclusive. Using proxy-based modelling of three trophic levels (algae, herbivores and fish), we show that asynchronous changes in phenology only occur if warming is seasonally heterogeneous, but not if warming is constant throughout the year. If warming is seasonally heterogeneous, the degree and even direction of asynchrony depends on the specific seasonality of the warming. Conclusions on phenological mismatches in food web interactions may therefore produce controversial results if the analyses do not distinguish between seasonally constant and seasonal specific warming. Furthermore, our results suggest that predicting asynchrony between interacting species requires reliable warming predictions that resolve sub-seasonal time scales.