Selecting successful students? : Undergraduate grades as an admission criterion

Abstract

In Europe’s reformed education system, universities may be forced by law to consider undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) as the primary admission criterion in the selection of graduate students. In this article, we investigate whether UGPA predicts graduate student performance in order to discuss its usefulness as an admission criterion. In our theoretical framework, we show that undergraduate students may choose slower study progress in favour of receiving higher grades and conclude that UGPA is a relatively good (weak) predictor for graduate grade point average (study progress). Having data from a cohort of students whose selection was in clear conflict with the legal requirement, we empirically confirm our theoretical predictions by exploiting a unique opportunity for assessing educational policies. Discussion of our findings leads to some important conclusions concerning the Bologna reforms and the lawmakers’ idea of giving some independence to universities, but not too much of it.