Publikation:

Match madness : Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament

Vorschaubild

Dateien

Match_madness.pdf
Match_madness.pdfGröße: 243.9 KBDownloads: 2356

Datum

2008

Autor:innen

Hirt, Edward R.

Herausgeber:innen

Kontakt

ISSN der Zeitschrift

Electronic ISSN

ISBN

Bibliografische Daten

Verlag

Schriftenreihe

Auflagebezeichnung

URI (zitierfähiger Link)
http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-opus-66164
DOI (zitierfähiger Link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00551.x
ArXiv-ID

Internationale Patentnummer

Link zur Lizenz
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic

Angaben zur Forschungsförderung

Projekt

Open Access-Veröffentlichung
Open Access Green

Sammlungen

Psychologie: Publikationen
Core Facility der Universität Konstanz

Gesperrt bis

Titel in einer weiteren Sprache

Publikationstyp
Zeitschriftenartikel
Publikationsstatus
Published

Erschienen in

Journal of Applied Social Psychology. 2008, 39(12), pp. 2809-2839. ISSN 0021-9029. eISSN 1559-1816. Available under: doi: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00551.x

Zusammenfassung

Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men s basketball tournament. The current work examines how individuals make predictions for one of the most popular forms of betting, tournament pools, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher-seeded team) than would be considered rational by a normative choice model, and that individuals are no better than chance at doing so. These predictions fit a pattern of probability matching, in which individuals predict upsets at a rate equal to past frequency. This pattern emerges because individuals believe the outcomes of the games are non-random and therefore predictable.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache

Fachgebiet (DDC)
150 Psychologie

Schlagwörter

Judgment, Sports gambling, Social prediction

Konferenz

Rezension
undefined / . - undefined, undefined

Forschungsvorhaben

Organisationseinheiten

Zeitschriftenheft

Zugehörige Datensätze in KOPS

Zitieren

ISO 690MCCREA, Sean M., Edward R. HIRT, 2008. Match madness : Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament. In: Journal of Applied Social Psychology. 2008, 39(12), pp. 2809-2839. ISSN 0021-9029. eISSN 1559-1816. Available under: doi: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00551.x
BibTex
@article{McCrea2008Match-10794,
  year={2008},
  doi={10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00551.x},
  title={Match madness : Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament},
  number={12},
  volume={39},
  issn={0021-9029},
  journal={Journal of Applied Social Psychology},
  pages={2809--2839},
  author={McCrea, Sean M. and Hirt, Edward R.}
}
RDF
<rdf:RDF
    xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"
    xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
    xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
    xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/"
    xmlns:dspace="http://digital-repositories.org/ontologies/dspace/0.1.0#"
    xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/"
    xmlns:void="http://rdfs.org/ns/void#"
    xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > 
  <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/10794">
    <dc:contributor>Hirt, Edward R.</dc:contributor>
    <bibo:uri rdf:resource="http://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/10794"/>
    <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2011-03-25T09:22:41Z</dcterms:available>
    <dc:creator>Hirt, Edward R.</dc:creator>
    <dc:rights>Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic</dc:rights>
    <dcterms:rights rdf:resource="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/"/>
    <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/"/>
    <dcterms:title>Match madness : Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament</dcterms:title>
    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men s basketball tournament. The current work examines how individuals make predictions for one of the most popular forms of betting, tournament pools, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher-seeded team) than would be considered rational by a normative choice model, and that individuals are no better than chance at doing so. These predictions fit a pattern of probability matching, in which individuals predict upsets at a rate equal to past frequency. This pattern emerges because individuals believe the outcomes of the games are non-random and therefore predictable.</dcterms:abstract>
    <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/43"/>
    <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/>
    <dc:creator>McCrea, Sean M.</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:issued>2008</dcterms:issued>
    <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/10794/1/Match_madness.pdf"/>
    <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
    <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2011-03-25T09:22:41Z</dc:date>
    <dc:contributor>McCrea, Sean M.</dc:contributor>
    <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/10794/1/Match_madness.pdf"/>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/43"/>
  </rdf:Description>
</rdf:RDF>

Interner Vermerk

xmlui.Submission.submit.DescribeStep.inputForms.label.kops_note_fromSubmitter

Kontakt
URL der Originalveröffentl.

Prüfdatum der URL

Prüfungsdatum der Dissertation

Finanzierungsart

Kommentar zur Publikation

Allianzlizenz
Corresponding Authors der Uni Konstanz vorhanden
Internationale Co-Autor:innen
Universitätsbibliographie
Ja
Begutachtet
Diese Publikation teilen