Predicted Pleistocene-Holocene range shifts of the tiger (Panthera tigris)

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2016
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Cooper, David M.
Dugmore, Andrew J.
Gittings, Bruce M.
Wilting, Andreas
Kitchener, Andrew C.
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Zusammenfassung

Aim:
In this article, we modelled the potential range shifts of tiger (Panthera tigris) populations over the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, to provide new insights into the evolutionary history and interconnectivity between populations of this endangered species.

Location:
Asia.

Methods:
We used an ecological niche approach and applied a maximum entropy (Maxent) framework to model potential distributions of tigers. Bioclimatic conditions for the present day and mid‐Holocene, and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), were used to represent interglacial and glacial conditions of the Late Pleistocene, respectively.

Results:
Our results show that the maximum potential tiger range during modern climates (without human impacts) would be continuous from the Indian subcontinent to north‐east Siberia. During the LGM, distributions are predicted to have contracted to southern China, India and Southeast Asia and remained largely contiguous. A potential distribution gap between Peninsular Malaya and Sumatra could have effectively separated tigers on the Sunda Islands from those in continental Asia during interglacials.

Main conclusions:
The continuous modelled distribution of tigers in mainland Asia supports the idea of mainly unimpeded gene flow between all populations throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Thus, our data support a pragmatic approach to tiger conservation management, especially of mainland populations, as it is likely that only recent anthropogenic changes caused separation of these populations. In contrast, Sunda tigers are likely to have separated and differentiated following the Last Glacial Maximum and thus warrant separate management.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache
Fachgebiet (DDC)
570 Biowissenschaften, Biologie
Schlagwörter
ecological niche model, evolutionary history, maximum entropy, Panthera tigris, Pleistocene distribution, Toba
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Zitieren
ISO 690COOPER, David M., Andrew J. DUGMORE, Bruce M. GITTINGS, Anne K. SCHARF, Andreas WILTING, Andrew C. KITCHENER, 2016. Predicted Pleistocene-Holocene range shifts of the tiger (Panthera tigris). In: Diversity and Distributions. Wiley. 2016, 22(11), pp. 1199-1211. ISSN 1366-9516. eISSN 1472-4642. Available under: doi: 10.1111/ddi.12484
BibTex
@article{Cooper2016-11Predi-52728,
  year={2016},
  doi={10.1111/ddi.12484},
  title={Predicted Pleistocene-Holocene range shifts of the tiger (Panthera tigris)},
  number={11},
  volume={22},
  issn={1366-9516},
  journal={Diversity and Distributions},
  pages={1199--1211},
  author={Cooper, David M. and Dugmore, Andrew J. and Gittings, Bruce M. and Scharf, Anne K. and Wilting, Andreas and Kitchener, Andrew C.}
}
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    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Aim:&lt;br /&gt;In this article, we modelled the potential range shifts of tiger (Panthera tigris) populations over the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, to provide new insights into the evolutionary history and interconnectivity between populations of this endangered species.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Location:&lt;br /&gt;Asia.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Methods:&lt;br /&gt;We used an ecological niche approach and applied a maximum entropy (Maxent) framework to model potential distributions of tigers. Bioclimatic conditions for the present day and mid‐Holocene, and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), were used to represent interglacial and glacial conditions of the Late Pleistocene, respectively.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Results:&lt;br /&gt;Our results show that the maximum potential tiger range during modern climates (without human impacts) would be continuous from the Indian subcontinent to north‐east Siberia. During the LGM, distributions are predicted to have contracted to southern China, India and Southeast Asia and remained largely contiguous. A potential distribution gap between Peninsular Malaya and Sumatra could have effectively separated tigers on the Sunda Islands from those in continental Asia during interglacials.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Main conclusions:&lt;br /&gt;The continuous modelled distribution of tigers in mainland Asia supports the idea of mainly unimpeded gene flow between all populations throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Thus, our data support a pragmatic approach to tiger conservation management, especially of mainland populations, as it is likely that only recent anthropogenic changes caused separation of these populations. In contrast, Sunda tigers are likely to have separated and differentiated following the Last Glacial Maximum and thus warrant separate management.</dcterms:abstract>
    <dc:contributor>Cooper, David M.</dc:contributor>
    <dc:rights>Attribution 4.0 International</dc:rights>
    <dcterms:issued>2016-11</dcterms:issued>
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